Rennes
vs
Strasbourg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rennes
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.36.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rennes is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rennes vs Strasbourg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rennes vs Strasbourg
| Probability | Rennes | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.9% | 19.8% | 21.3% |
| Market | 53.5% | 22.1% | 24.4% |
| Final | 54.8% | 21.5% | 23.6% |
| Edge | +1.4% | -0.6% | -0.8% |
Why Rennes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.36.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (our 54.8% × 1.83 − 1).
Rennes vs Strasbourg match preview
Rennes enters the match against Strasbourg with a 56% probability of winning, while Strasbourg has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Rennes, with a 9% probability. The expected goals for Rennes stand at 2.43, compared to Strasbourg's 1.34, indicating a significant advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Rennes has recorded two wins in their last five matches, while Strasbourg has struggled, with three losses in their last five outings. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters shows Rennes with three wins, one draw, and two victories for Strasbourg. Additionally, the model suggests a 71% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance that both teams will score.
Rennes and Strasbourg team news
Rennes news
- E. Lepaul — ankle injury
Strasbourg news
- F. Balde — leg injury
- J. Panichelli — knee injury
- S. Nanasi — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rennes and Strasbourg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.82
Rennes and Strasbourg attack and defence ratings
Rennes
Strasbourg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rennes vs Strasbourg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 54.8% | 1.82 | +1.4% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.1% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 54.8% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Strasbourg | 23.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.4% |
| No | 32.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win | 37.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 41.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.2% |
Rennes vs Strasbourg stats
Rennes and Strasbourg recent form
| Rennes |
DLWWLD |
| Strasbourg |
LLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rennes and Strasbourg season so far
Rennes record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Strasbourg record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Rennes vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Strasbourg | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Rennes | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2025-02-02 | Rennes | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-25 | Strasbourg | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-31 | Strasbourg | Rennes | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Rennes | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rennes vs Strasbourg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.5%, draw 22.2%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 4.32 | 4.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 4.41 | 3.94 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.71 | 3.58 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .