Brest
vs
Nice
Garuda Lions Prediction: Brest
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Brest vs Nice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Brest vs Nice
| Probability | Brest | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.2% | 20.7% | 20.2% |
| Market | 42.7% | 27.1% | 30.2% |
| Final | 46.8% | 25.5% | 27.7% |
| Edge | +16.5% | -6.4% | -10.0% |
Why Brest
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.20.
- The market prices Brest below the model: +16.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Brest vs Nice match preview
Brest faces Nice in an upcoming Ligue 1 clash, with Brest holding a 47% probability of winning compared to Nice's 28%. Recent form shows Brest with a mixed record of W-L-L-W-D-D, while Nice has slightly better momentum with W-W-L-D-L-D. The expected goals for Brest stand at 2.28, indicating a strong offensive performance, while Nice is projected at 1.20.
The most likely scoreline according to our model is 2-1 in favor of Brest, occurring with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last six encounters, Brest has secured 1 win, while Nice has 2 wins and there have been 3 draws, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Brest and Nice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.48
Brest and Nice attack and defence ratings
Brest
Nice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Brest vs Nice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 46.8% | 2.14 | +16.5% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 46.8% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Nice | 27.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Brest vs Nice stats
Brest and Nice recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Brest and Nice season so far
Brest record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
Nice record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Brest vs Nice head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Nice | Brest | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Brest | Nice | Ligue 1 | 4-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Nice | Brest | Ligue 1 | 6-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | Brest | Nice | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Brest | Nice | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-01 | Nice | Brest | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Brest vs Nice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 27.0%, away 30.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.49 | 3.37 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.34 | 3.28 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .