Monaco
vs
Lille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monaco
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.14.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 51%.
Monaco vs Lille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Lille
| Probability | Monaco | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.0% | 21.6% | 20.4% |
| Market | 46.1% | 28.1% | 25.8% |
| Final | 49.1% | 26.5% | 24.5% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -1.6% | -1.3% |
Why Monaco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 1.14.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Monaco below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.5% per unit staked (our 49.1% × 2.15 − 1).
Monaco vs Lille match preview
Monaco hosts Lille in a Ligue 1 clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Monaco has recorded two wins in their last three matches, while Lille has struggled, managing only one win in their last five. According to our model, Monaco has a 47% chance of winning, with a 27% probability of a draw and Lille at 26%. The expected goals indicate Monaco at 1.97 and Lille at 1.24, suggesting a potentially competitive match.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Monaco, which aligns with a 60% probability for over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring. In their last six encounters, Lille has the upper hand with four wins compared to Monaco's one, indicating a challenging matchup for the home side.
Monaco and Lille team news
Monaco news
- E. Dier — muscle injury
- S. Idumbo — groin injury
Lille news
- A. Ueda — foot injury
- H. Igamane — knee injury
- O. Sahraoui — coach's decision
- T. Santos — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monaco and Lille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Monaco and Lille attack and defence ratings
Monaco
Lille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monaco vs Lille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 49.1% | 2.04 | +3.0% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 49.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Lille | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% |
| No | 40.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 42.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
Monaco vs Lille stats
Monaco and Lille recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monaco and Lille season so far
Monaco record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lille record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Monaco vs Lille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Monaco | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Lille | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Lille | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-18 | Monaco | Lille | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-24 | Monaco | Lille | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Lille | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monaco vs Lille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.2%, draw 28.0%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.15 | 3.44 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.35 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.36 | 3.95 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.16 | 3.17 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .