Garuda Lions
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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

Monaco vs Freiburg

3 – 0 Full time

15′Y. EngelhardtP. Osterhage
37′Patrick Osterhage
45′P. Brunner
46′Y. SuzukiL. Holer
49′Aleksandr Golovin
58′M. CoulibalyA. Soubeir
58′M. DetourbetA. Fati
62′J. MakengoP. Treu
62′V. GrifoD. Scherhant
68′E. DiopD. Zakaria
70′Anis Soubeir
80′A. GolovinNazinho
80′P. BrunnerM. Abline
82′J. BesteC. Irie
83′L. Camara
86′Ansu Fati
90′A. Fati

Stade Louis II, MonacoReferee: S. Barrott

Monaco 43%
Draw 26%
Freiburg 31%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 1
48 Possession % 52
6 Corners 11
14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
1 Saves 4
384 Accurate passes 392

Monaco vs Freiburg overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Freiburg

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMonacoDrawFreiburg
Model36.6%25.1%38.3%
Market44.7%26.1%29.2%
Final42.7%25.9%31.5%
Edge-2.0%-0.2%+2.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Monaco ↓ / Freiburg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Monaco and Freiburg expected goals

Monaco 1.61
Freiburg 1.67

Total expected goals: 3.28

Monaco and Freiburg attack and defence ratings

Monaco

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Freiburg

Attack 1.44 +44%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Monaco vs Freiburg: result vs prediction

Monaco 3 – 0 Freiburg

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Monaco vs Freiburg markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Monaco 42.7% 2.34 -2.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 63.6% 1.57 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.0% 1.52 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 64.0% 1.56 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Monaco42.7%
Draw25.9%
Freiburg31.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563.6%
Under 2.536.4%
Both teams to scoreYes66.0%
No34.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.5%
12 (either side)74.1%
X2 (draw or away)57.3%
Handicap -1Monaco win18.3%
Push (exactly one goal)17.7%
Loss64.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.1%
1-28.4%
2-18.2%

Monaco vs Freiburg stats

Monaco and Freiburg recent form

newest first
Monaco LWDWDW
Freiburg LWWDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Monaco vs Freiburg head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Monaco vs Freiburg odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 26.1%, away 29.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.16 3.62 3.36
Bet365 2.05 3.70 3.20
BetVictor 2.10 3.60 3.13
Betano 2.12 3.65 3.30
Betfair 2.10 3.40 3.25
Dafabet 2.22 3.65 3.15
Marathonbet 2.17 3.64 3.38
Pinnacle 2.14 3.60 3.41
SBO 2.08 3.15 2.83
William Hill 2.10 3.40 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.11 ▼ -0.14
X 3.61 ▼ -0.10
2 3.23 ▲ +0.30

12 snapshots recorded, from .