Monaco
vs
Freiburg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monaco
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Monaco vs Freiburg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Freiburg
| Probability | Monaco | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 23.8% | 37.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.2% | 23.8% | 37.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Monaco vs Freiburg match preview
Monaco faces Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League with both teams showing strong recent form. Monaco has recorded five consecutive wins, along with a draw, while Freiburg has also been impressive, going unbeaten in their last six matches with five wins and a draw. According to our model, Monaco has a 39% chance of winning, while Freiburg stands at 37%, and a draw is estimated at 24%.
The expected goals for the match indicate a closely contested game, with Monaco projected at 1.82 and Freiburg at 1.76. The model suggests a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Monaco, with a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monaco and Freiburg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Monaco and Freiburg attack and defence ratings
Monaco
Freiburg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Monaco vs Freiburg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 39.2% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Freiburg | 37.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 60.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |