Pafos
vs
Riga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pafos
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
Pafos vs Riga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pafos vs Riga
| Probability | Pafos | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.8% | 29.4% | 31.8% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 38.8% | 29.4% | 31.8% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Pafos vs Riga match preview
Pafos faces Riga in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a probability model indicating Pafos has a 39% chance of winning, while Riga stands at 32%. The likelihood of a draw is calculated at 29%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Pafos, with an expected goals tally of 1.33 for Pafos and 1.18 for Riga.
Both teams show mixed recent form, with Pafos recording a sequence of L-W-D-W-W-D, and Riga having a record of W-W-D-D-L-W. The model suggests a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pafos and Riga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.50
Pafos and Riga attack and defence ratings
Pafos
Riga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Pafos vs Riga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 38.8% | 2.58 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.2% | 1.63 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 38.8% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Riga | 31.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pafos win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 61.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.4% |
Pafos vs Riga stats
Pafos and Riga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pafos and Riga season so far
Riga record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.