Pafos
vs
Apoel Nicosia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pafos
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia
| Probability | Pafos | Draw | Apoel Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.7% | 23.8% | 23.5% |
| Market | 48.6% | 27.1% | 24.3% |
| Final | 49.6% | 26.3% | 24.1% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -3.4% | -0.8% |
Why Pafos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Pafos below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia match preview
Pafos enters the match against Apoel Nicosia with a strong probability of winning at 57%, while Apoel Nicosia has a 19% chance. The expected goals suggest Pafos will score around 2.00, compared to Apoel Nicosia's 1.10. Recent form indicates Pafos has been performing well with three wins in their last five matches, while Apoel Nicosia has struggled, recording two losses in their last three games.
Historically, Pafos has dominated their recent encounters with Apoel Nicosia, winning all of the last four matchups, with one draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Pafos, with a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pafos and Apoel Nicosia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Pafos and Apoel Nicosia attack and defence ratings
Pafos
Apoel Nicosia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 49.6% | 2.02 | +4.1% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 49.6% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Apoel Nicosia | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.9% |
| No | 37.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pafos win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.6% |
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia stats
Pafos and Apoel Nicosia recent form
| Pafos |
LWLWDW |
| Apoel Nicosia |
WDLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Pafos | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Apoel Nicosia | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division | 3-3 |
| 2026-02-04 | Pafos | Apoel Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Apoel Nicosia | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pafos vs Apoel Nicosia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.6%, draw 27.1%, away 24.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.42 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.42 | 3.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.38 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .