Omonia Aradippou
vs
AEL
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEL
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Omonia Aradippou vs AEL
| Probability | Omonia Aradippou | Draw | AEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.4% | 30.0% | 32.6% |
| Market | 32.9% | 27.5% | 39.6% |
| Final | 34.0% | 28.1% | 37.9% |
| Edge | +4.5% | +2.5% | -7.0% |
Why AEL
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL match preview
Omonia Aradippou faces AEL in a closely contested matchup, with probabilities indicating a slight edge for AEL at 36%, compared to Omonia's 35% and a 29% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Omonia recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while AEL has achieved four wins and one loss in the same timeframe.
In terms of expected goals, Omonia Aradippou is projected to score 1.26, while AEL is slightly behind at 1.16. The model suggests a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% likelihood that both teams will score during the match. Historically, in their last three encounters, Omonia has one win, while AEL has secured two victories.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Omonia Aradippou and AEL expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.43
Omonia Aradippou and AEL attack and defence ratings
Omonia Aradippou
AEL
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEL | 37.9% | 2.64 | -7.0% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Aradippou | 34.0% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| AEL | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.6% |
| No | 49.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEL win | 14.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 67.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.1% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL stats
Omonia Aradippou and AEL recent form
| Omonia Aradippou |
LDDWDW |
| AEL |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Omonia Aradippou and AEL season so far
Omonia Aradippou record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
AEL record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Omonia Aradippou | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division | 0-3 |
| 2026-03-14 | AEL | Omonia Aradippou | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Omonia Aradippou | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-3 |
| 2025-03-15 | Omonia Aradippou | AEL | 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-22 | Omonia Aradippou | AEL | 1. Division | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-31 | AEL | Omonia Aradippou | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2018-12-05 | Omonia Aradippou | AEL | Cup | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Omonia Aradippou vs AEL odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.3%, draw 27.5%, away 39.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.34 | 2.36 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.39 |
| Marathonbet | 2.79 | 3.34 | 2.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .