AEK Larnaca
vs
Omonia Aradippou
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEK Larnaca
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
| Probability | AEK Larnaca | Draw | Omonia Aradippou |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 26.9% | 22.0% |
| Market | 66.3% | 20.5% | 13.2% |
| Final | 62.5% | 22.1% | 15.4% |
| Edge | -15.2% | +6.4% | +8.8% |
Why AEK Larnaca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou match preview
AEK Larnaca faces Omonia Aradippou in a Cyprus 1. Division match, with AEK holding a 51% probability of winning compared to Omonia's 22%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of AEK Larnaca, with a 10% chance of occurring. The expected goals for AEK Larnaca stand at 1.64, while Omonia Aradippou's expected goals are at 1.01, indicating a stronger offensive performance anticipated from AEK.
In terms of recent form, AEK Larnaca has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Omonia Aradippou has drawn twice and won four times in the same period. The head-to-head record shows both teams with one win each in their last two encounters, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead. The probabilities and confidence grade indicate a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou attack and defence ratings
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 62.5% | 1.60 | -15.2% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 62.5% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Omonia Aradippou | 15.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou stats
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou recent form
| AEK Larnaca |
WLWWWL |
| Omonia Aradippou |
DDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Omonia Aradippou | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.3%, draw 20.5%, away 13.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.20 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.55 | 7.10 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.39 | 4.50 | 6.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 4.60 | 7.35 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.33 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .