AEK Larnaca
vs
Omonia Aradippou
1 – 0 Full time
| 24′ | Mike Van der Hoorn | ||
| 43′ | Giorgos Pontikos | ||
| 60′ | Đorđe IvanovićKerim Mrabti | ||
| 60′ | Mike Van der HoornEnric Saborit | ||
| 70′ | Niko Havelkaevripidou evripidou | ||
| 75′ | Giorgos Pontikoscurtis makosso | ||
| 75′ | Kostas PileasJorge Miramón | ||
| 83′ | Achraf bouchataoui elHelaku Josué Schmidt | ||
| 83′ | Bogdan·PetrovicAnge-Freddy Plumain | ||
| 83′ | Amor LayouniGiorgos Naoum | ||
| 83′ | Jan RepasNicolas Andereggen | ||
| 88′ | Jeremy van Mullem | ||
| 89′ | Nicolas Andereggen |
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou
| Probability | AEK Larnaca | Draw | Omonia Aradippou |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 27.1% | 22.5% |
| Market | 67.7% | 19.8% | 12.4% |
| Final | 63.4% | 21.6% | 15.0% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +1.8% | +2.5% |
Why AEK Larnaca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou attack and defence ratings
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Aradippou
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou: result vs prediction
AEK Larnaca 1 – 0 Omonia Aradippou
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 63.4% | 1.58 | -4.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 63.4% |
| Draw | 21.6% | |
| Omonia Aradippou | 15.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou stats
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Aradippou recent form
| AEK Larnaca |
WLWWWL |
| Omonia Aradippou |
DDWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2026-02-22 | Omonia Aradippou | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-09 | Omonia Aradippou | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-06 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2020-07-18 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Aradippou | Friendlies Clubs | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Aradippou odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.7%, draw 19.8%, away 12.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 4.65 | 7.37 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.36 | 4.70 | 8.00 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 4.70 | 7.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 4.65 | 7.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 4.83 | 7.63 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.40 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .