Cyprus 1. Division · Full time ·Matchday 5

Anorthosis vs Pafos

1 – 3 Full time

35′Ivan Šunjić
42′Alessio Da Cruz
46′Yoram Zague
48′Leanderson da Silva Genésio
56′David Luiz
57′Leanderson da Silva Genésio
63′Tamás KissRafael Lopes
63′Stijn Middendorpsimranjit thandi
71′PêpêGonçalo Rosa Gonçalves Pereira Rodrigues
71′Vlad DragomirFelipe Bruno
74′Andreas Chrysostomou
76′Andreas ChrysostomouBabacar Dione
80′Domingos QuinaAlexandre Brito
80′Gabriel Teixeira AragaoKen Sema
81′simranjit thandi
85′Yoram ZagueJoão Correia

Antonis Papadopoulos, LarnacaReferee: Menelaos Antoniou

Anorthosis 21%
Draw 24%
Pafos 55%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Anorthosis vs Pafos overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Anorthosis vs Pafos

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAnorthosisDrawPafos
Model32.6%29.5%37.9%
Market16.8%22.7%60.5%
Final20.8%24.4%54.8%
Edge+3.9%+1.7%-5.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Pafos

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Anorthosis ↓ / Pafos → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 46%
No goals 10%

Anorthosis and Pafos expected goals

Anorthosis 1.19
Pafos 1.30

Total expected goals: 2.50

Anorthosis and Pafos attack and defence ratings

Anorthosis

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Pafos

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.84 -16%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Anorthosis vs Pafos: result vs prediction

Anorthosis 1 – 3 Pafos

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Cyprus 1. Division

Before and after this match

Anorthosis vs Pafos markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Pafos 54.8% 1.82 -5.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.5% 1.84 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.0% 1.92 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 62.1% 1.61 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Anorthosis20.8%
Draw24.4%
Pafos54.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%
Both teams to scoreYes52.0%
No48.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)45.2%
12 (either side)75.6%
X2 (draw or away)79.2%
Handicap -1Pafos win17.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss62.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
0-09.5%
0-19.5%

Anorthosis vs Pafos stats

Anorthosis and Pafos recent form

newest first
Anorthosis LWLLLW
Pafos LWDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Anorthosis vs Pafos head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Anorthosis wins 3Draws 6Pafos wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-21PafosAnorthosisCyprus 1. Division0-0
2025-11-09AnorthosisPafosCyprus 1. Division1-1
2025-01-02AnorthosisPafos1. Division0-2
2024-09-14PafosAnorthosis1. Division3-1
2024-04-21PafosAnorthosis1. Division5-1
2024-03-10AnorthosisPafos1. Division2-3
2024-02-04AnorthosisPafos1. Division2-2
2023-11-05PafosAnorthosis1. Division1-0
2023-02-20AnorthosisPafos1. Division2-1
2022-11-10PafosAnorthosis1. Division1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Anorthosis vs Pafos odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 16.8%, draw 22.7%, away 60.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.49 4.10 1.53
Bet365 5.50 3.90 1.55
BetVictor 5.75 4.00 1.50
Betano 5.50 4.15 1.55
Betfair 5.50 4.00 1.47
Dafabet 5.20 4.10 1.57
Marathonbet 5.55 4.10 1.51
Pinnacle 5.39 4.08 1.54
William Hill 5.50 3.80 1.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.50 ▼ -1.00
X 4.08 ▼ -0.12
2 1.53 ▲ +0.09

13 snapshots recorded, from .