Olympiakos
vs
Aris
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aris
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Olympiakos vs Aris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Olympiakos vs Aris
| Probability | Olympiakos | Draw | Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.9% | 23.3% | 20.8% |
| Market | 26.4% | 27.1% | 46.5% |
| Final | 33.8% | 26.1% | 40.1% |
| Edge | +29.5% | -3.8% | -25.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Olympiakos vs Aris match preview
Olympiakos faces Aris in a Cyprus 1. Division match on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 34% for an Olympiakos victory, while Aris has a 40% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 6% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, with a 61% chance of both scoring and a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
Olympiakos' recent form shows four draws followed by two wins, while Aris has two draws, one win, and three losses in their last six matches. In their last two encounters, Olympiakos has yet to secure a win, with one draw and one loss to Aris. Expected goals suggest Olympiakos will score 2.02, compared to Aris's 1.18. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Olympiakos and Aris expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Olympiakos and Aris attack and defence ratings
Olympiakos
Aris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Olympiakos vs Aris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris | 40.1% | 2.49 | -25.7% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos | 33.8% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Aris | 40.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.0% |
| No | 39.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris win | 8.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.5% | |
| Loss | 78.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |
Olympiakos vs Aris stats
Olympiakos and Aris recent form
| Olympiakos |
DDDDWW |
| Aris |
DWLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Olympiakos vs Aris head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Olympiakos | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Aris | Olympiakos | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Olympiakos vs Aris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.4%, draw 27.1%, away 46.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.48 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.57 | 3.39 | 1.99 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .