Aris
vs
AEK Larnaca
Garuda Lions Prediction: AEK Larnaca
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Aris vs AEK Larnaca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aris vs AEK Larnaca
| Probability | Aris | Draw | AEK Larnaca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.8% | 25.7% | 49.5% |
| Market | 33.7% | 27.8% | 38.4% |
| Final | 31.5% | 27.3% | 41.2% |
| Edge | -8.9% | -2.2% | +11.1% |
Why AEK Larnaca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices AEK Larnaca below the model: +11.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca match preview
Aris faces AEK Larnaca in the Cyprus 1. Division with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, AEK Larnaca holds a 49% probability of winning, while Aris has a 26% chance and a draw sits at 25%. The expected goals are 1.31 for Aris and 1.82 for AEK Larnaca, indicating a potentially competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Aris has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while AEK Larnaca has achieved four wins and two losses in the same timeframe. Historical head-to-head results show AEK Larnaca with three wins over Aris in their last four encounters, suggesting a favorable matchup for the visitors. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 61%, and both teams scoring is projected at 62%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aris and AEK Larnaca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Aris and AEK Larnaca attack and defence ratings
Aris
AEK Larnaca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aris vs AEK Larnaca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 41.2% | 2.43 | +11.1% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris | 31.5% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| AEK Larnaca | 41.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 50.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.1% |
Aris vs AEK Larnaca stats
Aris and AEK Larnaca recent form
| Aris |
WDWLDL |
| AEK Larnaca |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aris and AEK Larnaca season so far
Aris record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
AEK Larnaca record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | Aris | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 3-4 |
| 2026-04-25 | AEK Larnaca | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Aris | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-22 | AEK Larnaca | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division | 3-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Aris | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | AEK Larnaca | Aris | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Aris | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | AEK Larnaca | Aris | 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | Aris | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-04 | AEK Larnaca | Aris | 1. Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aris vs AEK Larnaca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 27.8%, away 38.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.41 |
| Marathonbet | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.36 | 2.44 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .