AEL
vs
Aris
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aris
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aris is the favourite, not a value bet.
AEL vs Aris overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEL vs Aris
| Probability | AEL | Draw | Aris |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.0% | 24.6% | 20.4% |
| Market | 29.2% | 27.1% | 43.8% |
| Final | 35.6% | 26.4% | 38.0% |
| Edge | +6.5% | -0.6% | -5.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -19.2% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.13 − 1).
AEL vs Aris match preview
AEL faces Aris in the Cyprus 1. Division with AEL holding a 35% probability of winning compared to Aris's 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Aris, with a 6% likelihood. AEL's expected goals stand at 1.87, while Aris is at 1.07, indicating a potentially competitive match.
In terms of recent form, AEL has recorded four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Aris has two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same period. The head-to-head record shows both teams with one win each in their last two encounters. Additionally, there is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEL and Aris expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
AEL and Aris attack and defence ratings
AEL
Aris
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEL vs Aris markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris | 38.0% | 2.63 | -5.8% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEL | 35.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Aris | 38.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.7% |
| No | 43.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris win | 7.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.5% | |
| Loss | 79.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
AEL vs Aris stats
AEL and Aris recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEL and Aris season so far
AEL record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Aris record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AEL vs Aris head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | AEL | Aris | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-21 | Aris | AEL | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Aris | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division | 4-0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Aris | AEL | 1. Division | 4-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | AEL | Aris | 1. Division | 0-3 |
| 2024-02-18 | Aris | AEL | 1. Division | 4-0 |
| 2023-12-04 | AEL | Aris | 1. Division | 0-4 |
| 2022-12-11 | AEL | Aris | 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-28 | Aris | AEL | 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2022-01-31 | Aris | AEL | 1. Division | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEL vs Aris odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.2%, draw 27.1%, away 43.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.16 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Pinnacle | 3.23 | 3.44 | 2.09 |
| SBO | 2.98 | 3.23 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .