Karmiotissa
vs
Apollon Limassol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Apollon Limassol
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Apollon Limassol is the favourite, not a value bet.
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol
| Probability | Karmiotissa | Draw | Apollon Limassol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 21.0% | 62.4% |
| Market | 13.5% | 21.7% | 64.8% |
| Final | 14.3% | 21.5% | 64.2% |
| Edge | +0.8% | -0.2% | -0.6% |
Why Apollon Limassol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.9% per unit staked (our 64.2% × 1.45 − 1).
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol match preview
Karmiotissa faces Apollon Limassol in a matchup where the latter is favored significantly, with a 64% probability of winning according to our model. Karmiotissa has struggled recently, recording a series of poor results with four draws and two losses in their last six matches. In contrast, Apollon Limassol has shown more consistency, with three wins and three draws in their last six games.
The expected goals for Karmiotissa stand at 1.11, while Apollon Limassol is projected to score 2.25. Our model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 10% probability, and indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. Both teams scoring is also anticipated at 61%. The head-to-head record shows Karmiotissa with 2 wins, 4 draws, and Apollon Limassol with 4 wins in their last 10 encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol attack and defence ratings
Karmiotissa
Apollon Limassol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apollon Limassol | 64.2% | 1.56 | -0.6% | 1.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win | 40.6% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karmiotissa | 14.3% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Apollon Limassol | 64.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 35.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win | 40.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 8.8% |
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol stats
Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol recent form
| Karmiotissa |
LLDDDL |
| Apollon Limassol |
WWDDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Karmiotissa and Apollon Limassol season so far
Karmiotissa record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Apollon Limassol record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Apollon Limassol | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2024-10-04 | Karmiotissa | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-17 | Apollon Limassol | Karmiotissa | Friendlies Clubs | 7-1 |
| 2024-04-29 | Apollon Limassol | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-15 | Karmiotissa | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-22 | Karmiotissa | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 3-4 |
| 2023-09-03 | Apollon Limassol | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2023-02-09 | Apollon Limassol | Karmiotissa | 1. Division | 3-4 |
| 2022-11-07 | Karmiotissa | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2021-02-06 | Karmiotissa | Apollon Limassol | 1. Division | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Karmiotissa vs Apollon Limassol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.5%, draw 21.7%, away 64.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.89 | 4.25 | 1.43 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.10 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 6.80 | 4.25 | 1.45 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 6.40 | 4.40 | 1.45 |
| Marathonbet | 6.80 | 4.25 | 1.42 |
| Pinnacle | 6.88 | 4.35 | 1.42 |
| SBO | 5.90 | 3.98 | 1.37 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 3.90 | 1.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .