Apollon Limassol
vs
Pafos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Apollon Limassol
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.23.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Apollon Limassol vs Pafos
| Probability | Apollon Limassol | Draw | Pafos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.1% | 23.9% | 22.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.1% | 23.9% | 22.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Apollon Limassol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos match preview
Apollon Limassol faces Pafos in the Cyprus 1. Division, with kickoff scheduled for October 31, 2026. According to our model, Apollon Limassol has a 53% probability of winning, while Pafos stands at 23%, and a draw is estimated at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Apollon, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals are 1.95 for Apollon Limassol and 1.24 for Pafos, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Apollon Limassol has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Pafos has two draws, one win, and two losses. The head-to-head record shows Apollon Limassol with three wins and one draw against Pafos in their last four encounters, highlighting a favorable trend for the home team.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Apollon Limassol and Pafos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Apollon Limassol and Pafos attack and defence ratings
Apollon Limassol
Pafos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apollon Limassol | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Apollon Limassol | 53.1% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Pafos | 22.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Apollon Limassol win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos stats
Apollon Limassol and Pafos recent form
| Apollon Limassol |
WWDDWD |
| Pafos |
DDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Apollon Limassol and Pafos season so far
Apollon Limassol record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pafos record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Apollon Limassol vs Pafos head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Apollon Limassol | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Pafos | Apollon Limassol | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-04 | Apollon Limassol | Pafos | Cyprus 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Pafos | Apollon Limassol | Cyprus 1. Division | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.