Nea Salamis
vs
Pafos
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pafos
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Pafos is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nea Salamis vs Pafos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nea Salamis vs Pafos
| Probability | Nea Salamis | Draw | Pafos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.5% | 25.2% | 42.3% |
| Market | 19.1% | 23.8% | 57.1% |
| Final | 22.5% | 24.1% | 53.4% |
| Edge | +3.3% | +0.4% | -3.7% |
Why Pafos
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 53.4% × 1.67 − 1).
Nea Salamis vs Pafos match preview
Nea Salamis faces Pafos in a Cyprus 1. Division match on October 26, 2026. According to our model, Nea Salamis has an 18% chance of winning, while Pafos stands at 61%, with a draw at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expected goals for Nea Salamis is 1.65, compared to Pafos's 1.99, indicating a competitive match.
Recent form shows Nea Salamis struggling with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Pafos has found some momentum with three wins and a draw in the same period. Our model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 71%, highlighting an expectation for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nea Salamis and Pafos expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Nea Salamis and Pafos attack and defence ratings
Nea Salamis
Pafos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nea Salamis vs Pafos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pafos | 53.4% | 1.87 | -3.7% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nea Salamis | 22.5% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Pafos | 53.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 46.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pafos win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 57.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.7% |
Nea Salamis vs Pafos stats
Nea Salamis and Pafos recent form
| Nea Salamis |
LLWLLD |
| Pafos |
DDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nea Salamis and Pafos season so far
Nea Salamis record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pafos record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Nea Salamis vs Pafos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-16 | Nea Salamis | Pafos | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-18 | Pafos | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 4-0 |
| 2024-02-28 | Nea Salamis | Pafos | Cup | 0-5 |
| 2024-02-19 | Pafos | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Nea Salamis | Pafos | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2023-02-03 | Pafos | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2022-10-29 | Nea Salamis | Pafos | 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2021-05-16 | Nea Salamis | Pafos | 1. Division | 1-2 |
| 2021-03-20 | Pafos | Nea Salamis | 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2021-01-11 | Nea Salamis | Pafos | 1. Division | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nea Salamis vs Pafos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.1%, draw 23.8%, away 57.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.16 | 3.84 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.95 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.66 |
| Marathonbet | 5.20 | 3.84 | 1.58 |
| Pinnacle | 4.86 | 3.88 | 1.62 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .