AEK Larnaca
vs
Omonia Nicosia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Omonia Nicosia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Omonia Nicosia is the favourite, not a value bet.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia
| Probability | AEK Larnaca | Draw | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.5% | 27.4% | 32.1% |
| Market | 25.6% | 27.1% | 47.3% |
| Final | 29.3% | 27.2% | 43.5% |
| Edge | +3.7% | +0.1% | -3.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.1% per unit staked (our 43.5% × 2.00 − 1).
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia match preview
AEK Larnaca faces Omonia Nicosia in a Cyprus 1. Division match on October 26, 2026. According to our model, AEK Larnaca has a 29% chance of winning, while Omonia Nicosia is favored at 44%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Omonia, with an 8% probability. The expected goals are 1.50 for AEK Larnaca and 1.32 for Omonia Nicosia, indicating a potentially competitive match.
In terms of recent form, AEK Larnaca has recorded two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Omonia Nicosia remains strong with four wins and a draw in their last five games. The head-to-head record shows AEK Larnaca has not won against Omonia Nicosia in their last four encounters, with two draws and two losses. Both teams are also expected to score, with a 58% probability for that outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia attack and defence ratings
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Nicosia | 43.5% | 2.30 | -3.8% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 29.3% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Omonia Nicosia | 43.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Omonia Nicosia win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 67.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-0 | 7.8% |
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia stats
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia recent form
| AEK Larnaca |
DWWLWW |
| Omonia Nicosia |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AEK Larnaca and Omonia Nicosia season so far
AEK Larnaca record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
Omonia Nicosia record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Omonia Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-14 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 0-2 |
| 2026-01-14 | Omonia Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-15 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-17 | Omonia Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | Cyprus 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-07 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Nicosia | Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-30 | Omonia Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-04-22 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Omonia Nicosia | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division | 1-1 |
| 2025-01-03 | AEK Larnaca | Omonia Nicosia | 1. Division | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.6%, draw 27.1%, away 47.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.62 | 3.38 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.45 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.38 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.68 | 3.40 | 1.95 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .