Omonia Nicosia
vs
Benfica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Omonia Nicosia
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
| Probability | Omonia Nicosia | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.0% | 27.3% | 30.7% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 42.0% | 27.3% | 30.7% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Omonia Nicosia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.21.
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica match preview
Omonia Nicosia hosts Benfica in the UEFA Europa League with a 42% probability of winning, while Benfica stands at 31%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Omonia, occurring at a 9% probability. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 54%, and both teams scoring is projected at 58%.
In terms of expected goals, Omonia Nicosia is forecasted to achieve 1.53, compared to Benfica's 1.29. Omonia's recent form shows a strong performance with three wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Benfica has won all of their last six matches following one loss. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Omonia Nicosia and Benfica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Omonia Nicosia and Benfica attack and defence ratings
Omonia Nicosia
Benfica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Nicosia | 42.0% | 2.38 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Nicosia | 42.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Benfica | 30.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Omonia Nicosia win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica stats
Omonia Nicosia and Benfica recent form
| Omonia Nicosia |
WWWDWD |
| Benfica |
LWWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Omonia Nicosia and Benfica season so far
Benfica record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They average 4.7 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).