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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica

1 – 4 Full time

14′Loïc Nego
42′Andronikos Kakoullis
49′Vangelis Pavlidis
50′EwandroLuuk Brouwers
61′Florin TănaseMihlali Mayambela
61′Andronikos KakoullisLoïs Diony
62′Tomás Araújo
69′Claudio EcheverriHeorhii Sudakov
69′Manuel SilvaJoão Palhinha
69′Rafa SilvaGianluca Prestianni
76′Fredrik Aursnes
77′Vangelis PavlidisAnísio Cabral
81′Jaden Sean MontnorA. Neophytou
81′panagiotis andreouAndreas Christou
83′João Palhinha
83′Andreas SchjelderupDodi Lukebakio
85′Gianluca Prestianni
88′Souffian El Karouani
90′Gianluca Prestianni
90′Loïs Diony

GSP Stadium, NicosiaReferee: Jasper Vergoote

Omonia Nicosia 18%
Draw 20%
Benfica 63%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 23
5 Shots on target 10
36 Possession % 64
4 Corners 5
12 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
7 Saves 4
323 Accurate passes 625

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOmonia NicosiaDrawBenfica
Model39.5%26.9%33.6%
Market10.7%17.1%72.2%
Final17.9%19.5%62.6%
Edge+7.2%+2.4%-9.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Benfica

  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Omonia Nicosia ↓ / Benfica → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 6% 1 7% 13% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 7%

Omonia Nicosia and Benfica expected goals

Omonia Nicosia 1.52
Benfica 1.40

Total expected goals: 2.92

Omonia Nicosia and Benfica attack and defence ratings

Omonia Nicosia

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.64 -36%

Benfica

Attack 1.87 +87%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: result vs prediction

Omonia Nicosia 1 – 4 Benfica

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Benfica 62.6% 1.60 -9.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.1% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.1% 1.66 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 82.1% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 66.2% 1.51 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Omonia Nicosia17.9%
Draw19.5%
Benfica62.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.1%
No39.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)37.4%
12 (either side)80.5%
X2 (draw or away)82.1%
Handicap -1Benfica win16.0%
Push (exactly one goal)17.8%
Loss66.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
2-18.8%
1-28.0%

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica stats

Omonia Nicosia and Benfica recent form

newest first
Omonia Nicosia DWWWWD
Benfica WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Omonia Nicosia and Benfica going into this match

league record before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia record

  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Benfica record

  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.1 goals per match.
  • They average 4.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 10.7%, draw 17.1%, away 72.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 8.80 5.67 1.35
Bet365 8.50 5.50 1.30
BetVictor 9.00 5.50 1.29
Betano 9.75 5.60 1.34
Betfair 9.00 5.50 1.30
Dafabet 9.00 5.80 1.33
Marathonbet 8.70 5.60 1.33
Pinnacle 9.06 5.84 1.32
SBO 6.47 4.40 1.31
William Hill 8.50 5.00 1.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 8.90 ▲ +1.60
X 5.55 ▲ +0.55
2 1.31 ▼ -0.08

12 snapshots recorded, from .