Ararat-Armenia
vs
AZ Alkmaar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ararat-Armenia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 26.5% | 36.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.0% | 26.5% | 36.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar match preview
In the upcoming UEFA Europa League match, Ararat-Armenia faces AZ Alkmaar with both teams having a 37% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Ararat-Armenia, with an 8% likelihood. The expected goals for Ararat-Armenia is 1.51, closely matched by AZ Alkmaar's 1.50, indicating a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows Ararat-Armenia with a record of W-L-W-W-L-W, while AZ Alkmaar has performed slightly better with W-L-D-W-W-W. The model suggests a 58% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score, highlighting an expectation for an engaging match. The confidence grade for this analysis is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Ararat-Armenia
AZ Alkmaar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 37.0% | 2.70 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 37.0% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat-Armenia win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.4% |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Ararat-Armenia |
WLWWLW |
| AZ Alkmaar |
WLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.