Ararat-Armenia
vs
AZ Alkmaar
0 – 4 Full time
| 21′ | Valdemar Byskov Andreasen | ||
| 23′ | Bruno Wilson | ||
| 27′ | Weslley Pinto Batista | ||
| 44′ | Armen Ambartsumyan | ||
| 45′ | Ayoub OufkirRo Zangelo Daal | ||
| 57′ | Armen AmbartsumyanKaren Muradyan | ||
| 65′ | Bendegúz KovácsMexx Meerdink | ||
| 65′ | Seiya MaikumaDenso Kasius | ||
| 73′ | Juan Andres BalantaBernardo Oliveira | ||
| 73′ | Sandro LimaArayik Eloyan | ||
| 73′ | Edgar·GrigoryanBruno Pereira | ||
| 73′ | Zhirayr ShaghoyanCarlos Henrique França Freires | ||
| 76′ | Weslley Pinto Batista | ||
| 79′ | Mexx Meerdink | ||
| 80′ | Wesley HoedtRion Ichihara | ||
| 80′ | Valdemar Byskov AndreasenHessel de Wit |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 39 | Possession % | 61 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 276 | Accurate passes | 491 |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
| Probability | Ararat-Armenia | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 27.6% | 32.2% |
| Market | 12.6% | 18.9% | 68.5% |
| Final | 19.5% | 21.1% | 59.4% |
| Edge | +6.9% | +2.2% | -9.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar attack and defence ratings
Ararat-Armenia
AZ Alkmaar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar: result vs prediction
Ararat-Armenia 0 – 4 AZ Alkmaar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
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Before and after this match
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | 59.4% | 1.68 | -9.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 19.5% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 59.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 40.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win | 14.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 67.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar stats
Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar recent form
| Ararat-Armenia |
WLDWLW |
| AZ Alkmaar |
DWLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.6%, draw 18.9%, away 68.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.60 | 5.12 | 1.42 |
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 7.90 | 5.30 | 1.40 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 7.60 | 5.40 | 1.39 |
| Marathonbet | 7.50 | 5.05 | 1.40 |
| Pinnacle | 7.66 | 5.36 | 1.39 |
| SBO | 5.03 | 4.00 | 1.43 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .