BKMA
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ararat-Armenia
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia
| Probability | BKMA | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.0% | 26.6% | 44.3% |
| Market | 9.1% | 16.6% | 74.2% |
| Final | 14.1% | 19.1% | 66.8% |
| Edge | +19.9% | +10.0% | -29.9% |
Why Ararat-Armenia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia match preview
In the upcoming Armenia Premier League match, BKMA faces Ararat-Armenia with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, BKMA has a 24% probability of winning, while Ararat-Armenia stands at 49%, and a draw is estimated at 26%. The expected goals for BKMA are 1.14, compared to Ararat-Armenia's 1.70. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows BKMA with a record of L-D-L-W-W-L, while Ararat-Armenia has D-W-L-W-W-L. In their last three encounters, BKMA has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses against Ararat-Armenia. Additionally, our model indicates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
BKMA and Ararat-Armenia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.91
BKMA and Ararat-Armenia attack and defence ratings
BKMA
Ararat-Armenia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ararat-Armenia | 66.8% | 1.50 | -29.9% | 1.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BKMA | 14.1% |
| Draw | 19.1% | |
| Ararat-Armenia | 66.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% |
| No | 40.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ararat-Armenia win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-1 | 7.7% |
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia stats
BKMA and Ararat-Armenia recent form
| BKMA |
LDLWWL |
| Ararat-Armenia |
LDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
BKMA and Ararat-Armenia season so far
BKMA record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Ararat-Armenia record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | BKMA | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Ararat-Armenia | BKMA | Armenia Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-29 | BKMA | Ararat-Armenia | Armenia Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-18 | Ararat-Armenia | BKMA | Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2024-11-02 | BKMA | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 2-4 |
| 2024-09-29 | Ararat-Armenia | BKMA | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-07 | Ararat-Armenia | BKMA | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2024-03-07 | BKMA | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2023-11-02 | Ararat-Armenia | BKMA | Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2023-09-01 | BKMA | Ararat-Armenia | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
BKMA vs Ararat-Armenia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 9.1%, draw 16.6%, away 74.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.50 | 5.45 | 1.20 |
| Bet365 | 7.50 | 5.50 | 1.25 |
| Marathonbet | 9.90 | 5.45 | 1.19 |
| Pinnacle | 9.27 | 5.76 | 1.23 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .