Jagiellonia
vs
Ararat-Armenia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jagiellonia
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia
| Probability | Jagiellonia | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 25.6% | 34.7% |
| Market | 66.8% | 19.8% | 13.4% |
| Final | 60.0% | 21.2% | 18.7% |
| Edge | -27.2% | +5.8% | +21.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia match preview
Jagiellonia faces Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Europa League, with model probabilities indicating a 40% chance of a Jagiellonia victory, a 35% chance for Ararat-Armenia, and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Jagiellonia, with a 9% probability. The match is expected to see over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 64%.
In terms of recent form, Jagiellonia has struggled with three losses in their last five matches, alongside two wins. Conversely, Ararat-Armenia has shown more consistency, winning three of their last five encounters. Expected goals are calculated at 1.65 for Jagiellonia and 1.53 for Ararat-Armenia, reflecting a competitive matchup. The confidence grade for these probabilities is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia attack and defence ratings
Jagiellonia
Ararat-Armenia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 60.0% | 1.67 | -27.2% | 1.44 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% | 1.23 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.3% | 1.66 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 60.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Ararat-Armenia | 18.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 60.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia stats
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia recent form
| Jagiellonia |
LLLWLW |
| Ararat-Armenia |
WLWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 66.8%, draw 19.8%, away 13.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 5.07 | 7.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.44 | 4.70 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.43 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 4.95 | 7.12 |
| SBO | 1.36 | 4.19 | 5.99 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .