Jagiellonia
vs
Ararat-Armenia
3 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | Zidane Banjaqui | ||
| 13′ | Kamil Jóźwiak | ||
| 17′ | Zidane BanjaquiZhirayr Shaghoyan | ||
| 20′ | Taras Romanczuk | ||
| 30′ | Bruno Wilson | ||
| 38′ | Rodrigo Conceição | ||
| 49′ | Manuel Jorge da Silva Cruz | ||
| 51′ | Ousmane Sow | ||
| 57′ | Elvin Tera | ||
| 66′ | Ousmane SowJeremy Agbonifo | ||
| 68′ | Elvin TeraBernardo Oliveira Dias | ||
| 68′ | Luís Felipe Fernandes RodriguesKaren Muradyan | ||
| 68′ | Kamil JóźwiakDušan Stojinović | ||
| 68′ | Jesús ImazEryk Kozlowski | ||
| 76′ | Artur SerobyanCarlos Henrique França Freires | ||
| 76′ | Sandro LimaArayik Eloyan | ||
| 79′ | Kajetan·SzmytAleksandar·Cirkovic | ||
| 80′ | Taras RomanczukSergio Lozano | ||
| 83′ | Dušan Stojinović | ||
| 84′ | Eryk Kozlowski |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 42 | Possession % | 58 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 14 |
| 6 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 328 | Accurate passes | 465 |
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia
| Probability | Jagiellonia | Draw | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.1% | 25.7% | 37.2% |
| Market | 67.8% | 19.6% | 12.7% |
| Final | 60.1% | 21.1% | 18.8% |
| Edge | -7.7% | +1.5% | +6.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia attack and defence ratings
Jagiellonia
Ararat-Armenia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: result vs prediction
Jagiellonia 3 – 1 Ararat-Armenia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 60.1% | 1.66 | -7.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 60.1% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| Ararat-Armenia | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.2% |
| No | 35.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win | 18.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 63.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.4% |
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia stats
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia recent form
| Jagiellonia |
LLLLWL |
| Ararat-Armenia |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jagiellonia and Ararat-Armenia going into this match
Jagiellonia record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.8%, draw 19.6%, away 12.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 5.07 | 7.70 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Betano | 1.45 | 4.90 | 7.50 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.42 | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 5.00 | 7.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 5.12 | 7.36 |
| SBO | 1.38 | 4.60 | 6.86 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .