Ekstraklasa · 2026-10-10T18:15:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 10

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze

1 – 3 Full time

38′			Rafał Janicki
47′			Ondrej Zmrzly
51′			Jarosław Kubicki
58′			Yvan Ikia DimiPeter Federico González Carmona
58′			Sondre Liseth
65′			Ousmane SowFerslev Anders Klynge
65′			Cezary PolakBartlomiej Wdowik
66′			Sergio LozanoJeremy Agbonifo
67′			Jesús Imaz
71′			Jeremy Agbonifo
71′			Sondre LisethErik Prekop
71′			Maksym KhlanZeidane Inoussa
73′			Kajetan·SzmytAleksandar·Cirkovic
83′			Jarosław Kubicki
84′			Rodrigo ConceiçãoKamil Jóźwiak
90′			Malthe Hojholt
90′			Yuki Kobayashi
90′			Paulo BernardoKacper Urbanski
90′			Kacper Urbanski

Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, BialystokReferee: Wojciech Myc

Jagiellonia

37%

Draw

28%

Gornik Zabrze

35%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

11	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	9
56	Possession %	44
4	Corners	4
13	Fouls	18
2	Offsides	0
6	Saves	3
400	Accurate passes	289

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Jagiellonia	Draw	Gornik Zabrze
Model	40.8%	27.2%	32.0%
Market	36.0%	27.6%	36.3%
Final	37.2%	27.5%	35.2%
Edge	+1.2%	-0.1%	-1.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

79%

3+ goals

54%

No goals

Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze expected goals

Jagiellonia

1.52

Gornik Zabrze

1.33

Total expected goals: 2.85

Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze attack and defence ratings

Jagiellonia

Attack

1.11 +11%

Defence

1.10 +10%

Gornik Zabrze

Attack

1.01 +1%

Defence

0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze: result vs prediction

Jagiellonia 1 – 3 Gornik Zabrze

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Ekstraklasa

Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats · 2026-10-09
Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice · 2026-10-09
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan — match page · 2026-10-10
Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź — match page · 2026-10-11
Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce · 2026-10-11
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin — match page · 2026-10-12

Before and after this match

Jagiellonia, previous: Jagiellonia – Legia Warszawa, 2026-09-20
Jagiellonia, next: Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
Gornik Zabrze, previous: Motor Lublin v Gornik Zabrze analysis
Gornik Zabrze, next: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice prediction

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Jagiellonia	37.2%	2.69	+1.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.3%	1.84	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	58.6%	1.71	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.5%	1.38	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	59.4%	1.68	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Jagiellonia	37.2%
	Draw	27.5%
	Gornik Zabrze	35.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.3%
	Under 2.5	45.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	58.6%
	No	41.4%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	64.8%
	12 (either side)	72.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	62.8%
Handicap -1	Jagiellonia win	20.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.0%
	Loss	59.4%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.9%
	2-1	8.9%
	1-2	7.8%

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze stats

Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze recent form

newest first

Jagiellonia	LLLWLW
Gornik Zabrze	DWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze going into this match

league record before kick-off

Jagiellonia record

They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Gornik Zabrze record

They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Jagiellonia wins 2Draws 4Gornik Zabrze wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-24	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa	1-2
2025-10-26	Gornik Zabrze	Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa	2-1
2025-05-04	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa	1-1
2024-11-03	Gornik Zabrze	Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa	0-2
2024-03-02	Gornik Zabrze	Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa	2-1
2023-08-27	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa	4-1
2023-03-11	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa	2-1
2022-08-26	Gornik Zabrze	Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa	1-1
2022-02-14	Gornik Zabrze	Jagiellonia	Ekstraklasa	1-2
2021-08-16	Jagiellonia	Gornik Zabrze	Ekstraklasa	1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 27.6%, away 36.3%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.53	3.38	2.53
Bet365	2.55	3.30	2.50
BetVictor	2.50	3.30	2.55
Betano	2.57	3.35	2.60
Betfair	2.55	3.50	2.50
Dafabet	2.60	3.45	2.65
Marathonbet	2.53	3.38	2.53
Pinnacle	2.74	3.29	2.71
SBO	2.45	3.11	2.50
William Hill	2.60	3.20	2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▲ +0.02

X 3.33 ▼ -0.12

2 2.53 ▲ +0.03

16 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-03T08:10:03Z.