Jagiellonia
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Garuda Lions Prediction: Jagiellonia
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
| Probability | Jagiellonia | Draw | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 27.2% | 32.0% |
| Market | 37.3% | 27.1% | 35.6% |
| Final | 38.1% | 27.1% | 34.7% |
| Edge | +3.5% | +0.1% | -3.6% |
Why Jagiellonia
- The market prices Jagiellonia below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.56, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze match preview
Jagiellonia faces Gornik Zabrze in an Ekstraklasa matchup where the probabilities indicate a closely contested game. Jagiellonia has a 38% chance of winning, while Gornik Zabrze is slightly behind at 35%, with a 27% probability of a draw. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Jagiellonia projected to score 1.53 and Gornik Zabrze 1.33.
Recent form shows Jagiellonia struggling with three losses in their last five matches, while Gornik Zabrze has performed better, securing four wins in their last five outings. Historically, Gornik Zabrze has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against Jagiellonia. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Jagiellonia, with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze attack and defence ratings
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 38.1% | 2.62 | +3.5% | 2.56 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jagiellonia | 38.1% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Gornik Zabrze | 34.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Jagiellonia win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.8% |
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze stats
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze recent form
| Jagiellonia |
LLLWLW |
| Gornik Zabrze |
DWWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Jagiellonia and Gornik Zabrze season so far
Jagiellonia record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 67% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gornik Zabrze record
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Jagiellonia | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Jagiellonia | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-03 | Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 0-2 |
| 2024-03-02 | Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-27 | Jagiellonia | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 4-1 |
| 2023-03-11 | Jagiellonia | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2022-08-26 | Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-14 | Gornik Zabrze | Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa | 1-2 |
| 2021-08-16 | Jagiellonia | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.3%, draw 27.1%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.48 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.48 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.38 | 2.72 |
| SBO | 2.33 | 3.13 | 2.48 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .