Piast Gliwice
vs
Widzew Łódź
Garuda Lions Prediction: Piast Gliwice
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź
| Probability | Piast Gliwice | Draw | Widzew Łódź |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 24.6% | 20.5% |
| Market | 35.5% | 26.7% | 37.8% |
| Final | 40.3% | 26.2% | 33.5% |
| Edge | +19.4% | -2.1% | -17.3% |
Why Piast Gliwice
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Piast Gliwice below the model: +19.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź match preview
Piast Gliwice faces Widzew Łódź in an Ekstraklasa clash on October 11, 2026. The model gives Piast Gliwice a 40% chance of winning, while Widzew Łódź has a 34% probability, and a draw stands at 26%. The expected goals suggest a strong offensive showing from Piast Gliwice at 1.87, compared to Widzew Łódź's 1.08. Both teams are likely to score, with a 57% probability for over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Piast Gliwice has shown resilience, with four wins in their last six matches, while Widzew Łódź has struggled, managing only two draws and four losses in the same period. Historically, Widzew Łódź has dominated their last two encounters, winning both matches against Piast Gliwice. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź attack and defence ratings
Piast Gliwice
Widzew Łódź
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan — match page
- Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
- Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — team news & stats
- Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin — match page
Before and after this match
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piast Gliwice | 40.3% | 2.48 | +19.4% | 2.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.0% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Piast Gliwice | 40.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Widzew Łódź | 33.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Piast Gliwice win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 45.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź stats
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź recent form
| Piast Gliwice |
LWWWWD |
| Widzew Łódź |
DDDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź season so far
Piast Gliwice record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Widzew Łódź record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Widzew Łódź | Piast Gliwice | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Piast Gliwice | Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.5%, draw 26.7%, away 37.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.56 | 3.50 | 2.44 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.45 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.56 | 3.50 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 3.49 | 2.48 |
| SBO | 2.48 | 3.13 | 2.33 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .