Radomiak Radom
vs
Motor Lublin
Garuda Lions Prediction: Motor Lublin
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin
| Probability | Radomiak Radom | Draw | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.9% | 28.0% | 42.1% |
| Market | 39.0% | 25.8% | 35.1% |
| Final | 36.7% | 26.4% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -9.1% | +2.2% | +6.9% |
Why Motor Lublin
- The market prices Motor Lublin below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin match preview
Radomiak Radom faces Motor Lublin in a tightly contested Ekstraklasa matchup, with model probabilities showing a slight edge for Motor Lublin at 37%, compared to Radomiak Radom's 36% and a 27% chance of a draw. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Radomiak Radom projected to score 1.21 and Motor Lublin 1.48.
Recent form indicates that Radomiak Radom has struggled with two losses in their last five matches, while Motor Lublin has also faced difficulties, managing only one win in their last five outings. In their last two head-to-head encounters, neither team has secured a victory, resulting in two draws. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin attack and defence ratings
Radomiak Radom
Motor Lublin
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motor Lublin | 36.9% | 2.71 | +6.9% | 2.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radomiak Radom | 36.7% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Motor Lublin | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Motor Lublin win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 58.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin stats
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin recent form
| Radomiak Radom |
LLDWWD |
| Motor Lublin |
DLLWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin season so far
Radomiak Radom record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Motor Lublin record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin | Ekstraklasa | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Motor Lublin | Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.0%, draw 25.8%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.70 | 2.60 |
| Pinnacle | 2.57 | 3.17 | 2.86 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 3.32 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .