Legia Warszawa
vs
Wisla Krakow
Garuda Lions Prediction: Legia Warszawa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow
| Probability | Legia Warszawa | Draw | Wisla Krakow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.2% | 26.1% | 26.8% |
| Market | 46.9% | 25.3% | 27.8% |
| Final | 47.0% | 25.5% | 27.5% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.8% | -1.0% |
Why Legia Warszawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.24.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow match preview
Legia Warszawa faces Wisla Krakow in the Ekstraklasa on October 11, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 47% for a Legia Warszawa victory, while Wisla Krakow has a 28% chance of winning, and a draw stands at 25%. The expected goals suggest Legia Warszawa will score 1.70, compared to Wisla Krakow's 1.24. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Legia Warszawa recording a sequence of W-D-W-L-D-D, and Wisla Krakow achieving W-W-D-L-W-D. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is 56%, and both teams scoring is projected at 59%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow attack and defence ratings
Legia Warszawa
Wisla Krakow
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Wieczysta Kraków vs Wisla Plock — team news & stats
- Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
- Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- Slask Wroclaw v Lech Poznan — match page
- Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź — match page
- Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
- Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin — match page
Before and after this match
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 47.0% | 2.13 | +0.3% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Legia Warszawa | 47.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Wisla Krakow | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.3% |
| No | 40.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Legia Warszawa win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow stats
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow recent form
| Legia Warszawa |
WDWLDD |
| Wisla Krakow |
WWDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Legia Warszawa and Wisla Krakow season so far
Legia Warszawa record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Wisla Krakow record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 25.3%, away 27.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.70 | 3.34 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.11 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.70 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.84 | 3.41 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.20 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .