Slask Wroclaw
vs
Lech Poznan
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lech Poznan
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan
| Probability | Slask Wroclaw | Draw | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.9% | 23.3% | 46.8% |
| Market | 19.3% | 21.7% | 59.0% |
| Final | 22.0% | 22.1% | 55.9% |
| Edge | +10.6% | +1.5% | -12.1% |
Why Lech Poznan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan match preview
Slask Wroclaw faces Lech Poznan in an Ekstraklasa matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a probability of 22% for Slask Wroclaw to win and 56% for Lech Poznan, with a draw also at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% likelihood, and there is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Slask Wroclaw has recorded three losses, one win, and two draws in their last six matches, while Lech Poznan has achieved four wins and two losses in the same timeframe. The expected goals are 1.59 for Slask Wroclaw and 2.01 for Lech Poznan, indicating a competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan attack and defence ratings
Slask Wroclaw
Lech Poznan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Raków Częstochowa vs GKS Katowice
- Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin — team news & stats
- Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze
- Piast Gliwice v Widzew Łódź — match page
- Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce
- Legia Warszawa vs Wisla Krakow — team news & stats
- Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin — match page
Before and after this match
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lech Poznan | 55.9% | 1.79 | -12.1% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slask Wroclaw | 22.0% |
| Draw | 22.1% | |
| Lech Poznan | 55.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.7% |
| No | 30.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lech Poznan win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 53.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan stats
Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan recent form
| Slask Wroclaw |
LLLWDD |
| Lech Poznan |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Slask Wroclaw and Lech Poznan season so far
Slask Wroclaw record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lech Poznan record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Slask Wroclaw | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Lech Poznan | Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Lech Poznan | Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa | 0-0 |
| 2023-08-20 | Slask Wroclaw | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 3-1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Slask Wroclaw | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-19 | Lech Poznan | Slask Wroclaw | Cup | 1-3 |
| 2022-08-14 | Lech Poznan | Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2022-04-01 | Slask Wroclaw | Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa | 0-1 |
| 2021-10-02 | Lech Poznan | Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa | 4-0 |
| 2021-02-21 | Lech Poznan | Slask Wroclaw | Ekstraklasa | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Slask Wroclaw vs Lech Poznan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.3%, draw 21.7%, away 59.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.67 | 4.30 | 1.58 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.50 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.40 | 1.62 |
| Marathonbet | 4.70 | 4.30 | 1.56 |
| Pinnacle | 4.92 | 4.45 | 1.58 |
| SBO | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .