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UEFA Europa League · ·League Stage - 2

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Garuda Lions Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen

1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability

Bet on Bayer Leverkusen

Stadion Poznan

Lech Poznan 27%
Draw 22%
Bayer Leverkusen 51%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Bayer Leverkusen wins
51%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
98%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
77%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
6% of simulated outcomes

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLech PoznanDrawBayer Leverkusen
Model46.9%21.1%32.0%
Market21.0%22.1%56.9%
Final27.5%21.9%50.7%
Edge+25.9%-1.0%-24.9%

Confidence: Medium

Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen match preview

Lech Poznan faces Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League with a predicted outcome favoring the visitors. According to our model, Bayer Leverkusen has a 51% chance of winning, while Lech Poznan stands at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 6% probability. Both teams are expected to score, with a 77% likelihood, and there is a strong chance of over 2.5 goals at 79%.

In terms of recent form, Lech Poznan has recorded three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Bayer Leverkusen has achieved four wins, one draw, and one loss. The expected goals for Lech Poznan are 2.30, compared to Bayer Leverkusen's 1.90, indicating a competitive match ahead.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lech Poznan ↓ / Bayer Leverkus → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 6% 4% 2 4% 8% 7% 5% 3 6% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 93%
3+ goals 79%
No goals 2%

Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals

Lech Poznan 2.30
Bayer Leverkusen 1.90

Total expected goals: 4.20

Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen attack and defence ratings

Lech Poznan

Attack 1.60 +60%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 1.68 +68%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bayer Leverkusen 50.7% 1.97 -24.9% 1.69
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 79.0% 1.27 — —
Both teams to score Yes 77.2% 1.30 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.1% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 68.0% 1.47 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lech Poznan27.5%
Draw21.9%
Bayer Leverkusen50.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.579.0%
Under 2.521.0%
Both teams to scoreYes77.2%
No22.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)49.3%
12 (either side)78.1%
X2 (draw or away)72.5%
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win16.9%
Push (exactly one goal)15.0%
Loss68.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.5%
1-17.2%
2-27.2%
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Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen stats

Lech Poznan and Bayer Leverkusen recent form

newest first
Lech Poznan WLLWWW
Bayer Leverkusen WWDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.0%, draw 22.1%, away 56.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.71 4.46 1.68
Bet365 4.50 4.10 1.62
BetVictor 4.40 4.10 1.60
Betano 4.65 4.25 1.67
Betfair 4.60 4.33 1.62
Dafabet 4.50 4.30 1.69
Marathonbet 4.65 4.40 1.66
Pinnacle 4.47 4.35 1.66
SBO 3.98 3.76 1.58
William Hill 4.40 4.00 1.67
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.50 —
X 4.28 —
2 1.66 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Bayer Leverkusen Predicted score 1 – 2 Medium Bet Now
v Bet Now