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UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 2

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

0 – 3 Full time

13′Artemijus Tutyskinas
16′Jaden Sean Montnor
33′Łukasz Bejger
45′Luka Vesner TicicMario Kvesić
52′Mario Kvesić
59′Muamer Tanković
62′Yaya DukulyBenjamin Verbič
62′Łukasz BejgerAlpha Richard·Diounkou
62′Papa DanielA. Kučys
69′Loïs DionyAndronikos Kakoullis
69′Muamer TankovićFlorin Tănase
69′Jaden Sean Montnor
73′Milot AvdyliLeonardo Koutris
75′Jaden Sean MontnorMihlali Mayambela
82′Benjamin Verbič
83′Senou Coulibaly
84′Senou Coulibaly
89′EwandroLoïc Nego
89′Senou CoulibalyStefan Simić

Stadion Z’dežele, CeljeReferee: Elcin Masiyev

Celje 30%
Draw 29%
Omonia Nicosia 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 6
61 Possession % 39
3 Corners 6
9 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 2
594 Accurate passes 351

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCeljeDrawOmonia Nicosia
Model17.8%31.0%51.2%
Market34.2%28.5%37.3%
Final30.1%29.1%40.8%
Edge-4.1%+0.6%+3.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Omonia Nicosia

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.68.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Omonia Nicosia below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Celje ↓ / Omonia Nicosia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 15% 17% 12% 1 13% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 85%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 32%
No goals 15%

Celje and Omonia Nicosia expected goals

Celje 0.68
Omonia Nicosia 1.33

Total expected goals: 2.01

Celje and Omonia Nicosia attack and defence ratings

Celje

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Omonia Nicosia

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.57 -43%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: result vs prediction

Celje 0 – 3 Omonia Nicosia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 2 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Omonia Nicosia 40.8% 2.45 +3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 67.5% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score No 62.6% 1.60 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.9% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.8% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Celje30.1%
Draw29.1%
Omonia Nicosia40.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532.5%
Under 2.567.5%
Both teams to scoreYes37.4%
No62.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.2%
12 (either side)70.9%
X2 (draw or away)69.9%
Handicap -1Omonia Nicosia win25.2%
Push (exactly one goal)26.0%
Loss48.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-116.7%
0-014.7%
1-113.3%

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia stats

Celje and Omonia Nicosia recent form

newest first
Celje WDLLLW
Omonia Nicosia WWWDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Celje and Omonia Nicosia going into this match

league record before kick-off

Omonia Nicosia record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Celje vs Omonia Nicosia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 28.5%, away 37.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.83 3.42 2.60
Bet365 2.75 3.30 2.55
BetVictor 2.70 3.40 2.45
Betano 2.77 3.30 2.57
Betfair 2.80 3.30 2.50
Dafabet 2.80 3.40 2.55
Marathonbet 2.79 3.38 2.56
Pinnacle 2.86 3.43 2.55
SBO 2.71 3.28 2.41
William Hill 2.70 3.20 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.78 ▲ +0.37
X 3.34 ▼ -0.10
2 2.55 ▼ -0.23

14 snapshots recorded, from .