Celje
vs
Omonia Nicosia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Omonia Nicosia
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
| Probability | Celje | Draw | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.5% | 29.7% | 51.9% |
| Market | 38.9% | 27.3% | 33.8% |
| Final | 33.8% | 27.9% | 38.3% |
| Edge | -20.4% | +2.3% | +18.1% |
Why Omonia Nicosia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Omonia Nicosia below the model: +18.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia match preview
In the upcoming UEFA Europa League match, Celje faces Omonia Nicosia with kickoff scheduled for October 15, 2026. The model probabilities indicate a 52% chance of an Omonia Nicosia victory, while Celje has an 18% chance, and a draw stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% probability. Expected goals are 0.75 for Celje and 1.42 for Omonia Nicosia, suggesting a stronger offensive performance from the visitors.
Recent form highlights a challenging period for Celje, who have recorded one win in their last six matches (D-L-L-L-W-L). In contrast, Omonia Nicosia is in better shape, boasting a six-match unbeaten streak with four wins and two draws (W-W-D-W-D-W). The probability of over 2.5 goals is 37%, while both teams scoring stands at 41%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Celje and Omonia Nicosia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Celje and Omonia Nicosia attack and defence ratings
Celje
Omonia Nicosia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats
- Union St. Gilloise v Real Sociedad — match page
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page
Before and after this match
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Nicosia | 38.3% | 2.61 | +18.1% | 2.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.5% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celje | 33.8% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Omonia Nicosia | 38.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.1% |
| No | 58.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Omonia Nicosia win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.8% | |
| Loss | 44.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.1% |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia stats
Celje and Omonia Nicosia recent form
| Celje |
DLLLWL |
| Omonia Nicosia |
WWWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Celje vs Omonia Nicosia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.9%, draw 27.3%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.47 | 2.96 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.55 | 2.77 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.43 | 3.42 | 2.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.45 | 2.79 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 3.08 | 2.62 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .