Union St. Gilloise
vs
Real Sociedad
1 – 1 Full time
| 39′ | David Hubert | ||
| 45′ | Yangel HerreraBenat Turrientes | ||
| 46′ | Benat Turrientes | ||
| 58′ | Nohim Chibani | ||
| 63′ | Nohim ChibaniDenzel De Roeve | ||
| 68′ | Luka SučićTakefusa Kubo | ||
| 71′ | Darius OlaruDylan Aquino | ||
| 73′ | Relebohile Mofokeng | ||
| 74′ | Mamadou Sarr | ||
| 79′ | Job OchiengPablo Marin | ||
| 79′ | Gonçalo GuedesAnder Barrenetxea | ||
| 84′ | Mateo BiondicSekou Abrahame Keita | ||
| 88′ | Sekou Abrahame Keita | ||
| 90′ | Mikel OyarzabalOrri Steinn Óskarsson |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 340 | Accurate passes | 455 |
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
| Probability | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 85.6% | 9.8% | 4.7% |
| Market | 38.1% | 25.8% | 36.1% |
| Final | 50.0% | 21.8% | 28.2% |
| Edge | +11.9% | -4.0% | -7.9% |
Why Union St. Gilloise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.50 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Union St. Gilloise below our published probability: +11.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.33
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings
Union St. Gilloise
Real Sociedad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: result vs prediction
Union St. Gilloise 1 – 1 Real Sociedad
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Lyon vs Crystal Palace
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan — match page
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page
Before and after this match
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 50.0% | 2.00 | +11.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.2% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 50.0% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Real Sociedad | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 70.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.1% | |
| Loss | 14.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.4% |
| 4-0 | 8.2% | |
| 2-0 | 8.1% |
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad stats
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad recent form
| Union St. Gilloise |
DWWWWW |
| Real Sociedad |
WWLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 25.8%, away 36.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.59 | 3.73 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.68 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.80 | 2.71 |
| SBO | 2.37 | 3.54 | 2.59 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .