Union St. Gilloise
vs
Real Sociedad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Union St. Gilloise
3 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
| Probability | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 86.8% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Market | 41.1% | 26.6% | 32.3% |
| Final | 52.5% | 22.2% | 25.3% |
| Edge | +45.8% | -17.6% | -28.2% |
Why Union St. Gilloise
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.61 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Union St. Gilloise below the model: +45.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad match preview
Union St. Gilloise enters the match against Real Sociedad with a strong probability of winning at 87%. Their recent form is impressive, boasting six consecutive wins, which contributes to an expected goals tally of 3.61 for this match. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 3-0, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals in the game.
In contrast, Real Sociedad has shown mixed form, with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, leading to an expected goals figure of just 0.81. The probability of a draw stands at 9%, while the likelihood of Real Sociedad winning is only 4%. With both teams to score rated at 54%, the match could see Union St. Gilloise dominating the proceedings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.42
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings
Union St. Gilloise
Real Sociedad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
- Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen — match page
- Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan — match page
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom — team news & stats
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia — team news & stats
- Torreense vs Sunderland — team news & stats
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page
Before and after this match
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 52.5% | 1.90 | +45.8% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.8% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 52.5% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Real Sociedad | 25.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.3% |
| No | 45.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win | 72.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.3% | |
| Loss | 13.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 9.5% |
| 4-0 | 8.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad stats
Union St. Gilloise and Real Sociedad recent form
| Union St. Gilloise |
WWWWWW |
| Real Sociedad |
WLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 26.6%, away 32.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.63 | 2.99 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.58 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.65 | 2.95 |
| SBO | 2.11 | 3.19 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .