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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 9

Malaga vs Real Sociedad

2 – 5 Full time

3′Takefusa Kubo
26′Orri Steinn Óskarsson
37′Jon Martin
45′Izan MerinoRamón Enríquez
45′José SalinasAdam Aznou
54′Adrian Nino
59′Mikel Oyarzabal
61′Ander BarrenetxeaGonçalo Guedes
61′Hector FortIgor Zubeldia
62′Mamadou Sarr
64′Carlos DotorDani Lorenzo
66′Pablo Martínez Andrés
67′Mikel Oyarzabal
67′Carlos Ruiz Rubio
68′David LarrubiaJoaquín Muñoz
71′Aihen MuñozSergio Gómez
71′Takefusa KuboJob Ochieng
73′Gonçalo Guedes
79′Orri Steinn ÓskarssonAlex Marchal García
82′Adrian NinoCarlos Puga

La Rosaleda, MalagaReferee: Luis Bestard Servera

Malaga 34%
Draw 27%
Real Sociedad 39%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 21
6 Shots on target 9
45 Possession % 55
4 Corners 5
4 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 2
4 Saves 4
413 Accurate passes 526

Malaga vs Real Sociedad overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Malaga vs Real Sociedad

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMalagaDrawReal Sociedad
Model44.9%29.3%25.7%
Market30.2%26.7%43.0%
Final33.9%27.4%38.7%
Edge+3.7%+0.6%-4.3%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Real Sociedad

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Malaga ↓ / Real Sociedad → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 8% 14% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 8%

Malaga and Real Sociedad expected goals

Malaga 1.53
Real Sociedad 1.18

Total expected goals: 2.72

Malaga and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings

Malaga

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Real Sociedad

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.24 +24%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad: result vs prediction

Malaga 2 – 5 Real Sociedad

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Malaga vs Real Sociedad markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Sociedad 38.7% 2.58 -4.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.9% 1.89 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.9% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.3% 1.35 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Malaga33.9%
Draw27.4%
Real Sociedad38.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.9%
Under 2.547.1%
Both teams to scoreYes57.9%
No42.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)61.3%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)66.1%
Handicap -1Real Sociedad win11.3%
Push (exactly one goal)14.4%
Loss74.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
2-19.4%
0-08.4%

Malaga vs Real Sociedad stats

Malaga and Real Sociedad recent form

newest first
Malaga DLLDDL
Real Sociedad DWWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Malaga and Real Sociedad going into this match

league record before kick-off

Malaga record

  • They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
  • They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Real Sociedad record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Malaga wins 3Draws 3Real Sociedad wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-01-07MalagaReal SociedadCopa del Rey0-1
2018-04-22MalagaReal SociedadLa Liga2-0
2017-12-10Real SociedadMalagaLa Liga0-2
2017-05-14Real SociedadMalagaLa Liga2-2
2017-01-16MalagaReal SociedadLa Liga0-2
2016-02-27Real SociedadMalagaLa Liga1-1
2015-10-03MalagaReal SociedadLa Liga3-1
2015-04-04MalagaReal SociedadLa Liga1-1
2014-11-01Real SociedadMalagaLa Liga0-1
2014-02-17MalagaReal SociedadLa Liga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Malaga vs Real Sociedad odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.7%, draw 26.9%, away 43.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.30 3.68 2.27
Bet365 3.10 3.60 2.20
BetVictor 3.13 3.50 2.25
Betano 3.30 3.50 2.15
Betfair 3.10 3.75 2.15
Dafabet 3.25 3.55 2.22
Marathonbet 3.22 3.58 2.21
Pinnacle 3.22 3.67 2.25
SBO 2.91 3.10 2.15
William Hill 3.00 3.30 2.20
pinnacle 3.23 3.49 2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.17 ▼ -0.06
X 3.59 ▲ +0.10
2 2.23 ▲ +0.03

30 snapshots recorded, from .