Malaga
vs
Real Sociedad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Sociedad
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Malaga vs Real Sociedad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malaga vs Real Sociedad
| Probability | Malaga | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.0% | 29.3% | 25.7% |
| Market | 29.0% | 26.9% | 44.1% |
| Final | 33.0% | 27.5% | 39.5% |
| Edge | +16.0% | +2.4% | -18.4% |
Why Real Sociedad
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad match preview
Malaga faces Real Sociedad in this La Liga matchup, with our model giving Malaga a 34% chance of winning, while Real Sociedad is favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2 in favor of Real Sociedad, with a 7% probability. The expected goals for Malaga stand at 1.64, compared to 1.23 for Real Sociedad, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Malaga has struggled with a record of D-L-L-D-D-L, while Real Sociedad has shown better performance with W-W-L-L-W-D. Our model suggests a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging match.
Malaga and Real Sociedad team news
Malaga news
- A. Ochoa — knee injury
- D. Murillo — knee injury
- J. Cruz — injury
- J. Lobete — knee injury
- M. Diarra — calf injury
Real Sociedad news
- A. Odriozola — knee injury
- L. Beitia — ankle injury
- P. Marin — suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malaga and Real Sociedad expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Malaga and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings
Malaga
Real Sociedad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malaga vs Real Sociedad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 39.5% | 2.53 | -18.4% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 33.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Real Sociedad | 39.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Sociedad win | 11.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.4% | |
| Loss | 74.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 8.5% |
Malaga vs Real Sociedad stats
Malaga and Real Sociedad recent form
| Malaga |
DLLDDL |
| Real Sociedad |
DWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malaga and Real Sociedad season so far
Malaga record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-07 | Malaga | Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey | 0-1 |
| 2018-04-22 | Malaga | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2017-12-10 | Real Sociedad | Malaga | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2017-05-14 | Real Sociedad | Malaga | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2017-01-16 | Malaga | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2016-02-27 | Real Sociedad | Malaga | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2015-10-03 | Malaga | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2015-04-04 | Malaga | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2014-11-01 | Real Sociedad | Malaga | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2014-02-17 | Malaga | Real Sociedad | La Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 27.0%, away 43.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.28 | 3.64 | 2.29 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.75 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.22 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 3.54 | 2.23 |
| Pinnacle | 3.48 | 3.55 | 2.15 |
| SBO | 2.91 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| pinnacle | 3.23 | 3.49 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .