Malaga vs Espanyol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malaga vs Espanyol
| Probability | Malaga | Draw | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 30.8% | 28.4% |
| Market | 33.2% | 29.4% | 37.4% |
| Final | 35.1% | 29.8% | 35.2% |
| Edge | +7.7% | +1.3% | -9.0% |
Why Espanyol
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malaga and Espanyol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Malaga and Espanyol attack and defence ratings
Malaga
Espanyol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Malaga vs Espanyol: result vs prediction
Malaga 1 – 1 Espanyol
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malaga vs Espanyol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 35.2% | 2.84 | -9.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 35.1% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Espanyol | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% |
| No | 44.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Espanyol win | 12.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.7% | |
| Loss | 71.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.0% |
Malaga vs Espanyol stats
Malaga and Espanyol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malaga and Espanyol going into this match
Malaga record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Espanyol record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malaga vs Espanyol head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-02 | Espanyol | Malaga | Segunda División | 3-0 |
| 2020-11-02 | Malaga | Espanyol | Segunda División | 0-3 |
| 2020-09-02 | Espanyol | Malaga | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2018-05-13 | Espanyol | Malaga | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2018-01-08 | Malaga | Espanyol | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2017-02-04 | Malaga | Espanyol | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2016-08-26 | Espanyol | Malaga | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2016-04-03 | Malaga | Espanyol | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2015-11-21 | Espanyol | Malaga | La Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malaga vs Espanyol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.2%, draw 29.5%, away 37.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.96 | 3.31 | 2.66 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.26 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.23 | 2.65 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.11 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.17 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
67 snapshots recorded, from .