Elche
vs
Celta Vigo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Elche
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Elche vs Celta Vigo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Elche vs Celta Vigo
| Probability | Elche | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 28.8% | 27.2% |
| Market | 34.1% | 29.2% | 36.7% |
| Final | 36.6% | 29.1% | 34.3% |
| Edge | +10.0% | -0.5% | -9.5% |
Why Elche
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Elche below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Elche vs Celta Vigo match preview
Elche faces Celta Vigo in a La Liga matchup, with model probabilities indicating a 37% chance for an Elche victory, a 34% chance for Celta Vigo, and a 29% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Elche will score 1.57 while Celta Vigo is projected to net 1.26. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Elche, with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Elche with a record of one win and five losses in their last six matches, while Celta Vigo has one win, two draws, and three losses in the same span. The head-to-head results from the last two encounters indicate a balanced competition, with each team securing one win. The probabilities also suggest a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
Elche and Celta Vigo team news
Elche news
- Buba Sangare — muscle injury
- F. Redondo Solari — suspended
- Y. Santiago — knee injury
Celta Vigo news
- A. Antanon — ankle injury
- C. Starfelt — injury
- J. El Abdellaoui — knee injury
- M. Roman — knee injury
- S. Caceres — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Elche and Celta Vigo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Elche and Celta Vigo attack and defence ratings
Elche
Celta Vigo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club — match page
- Alaves v Atletico Madrid — match page
- Barcelona v Getafe — match page
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruna — match page
- Real Betis vs Osasuna — team news & stats
- Racing Santander v Valencia — match page
- Levante vs Sevilla — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Elche vs Celta Vigo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 36.6% | 2.73 | +10.0% | 2.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 36.6% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| Celta Vigo | 34.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% |
| No | 39.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Elche win | 24.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 7.7% |
Elche vs Celta Vigo stats
Elche and Celta Vigo recent form
| Elche |
WLDLLL |
| Celta Vigo |
WLDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Elche and Celta Vigo season so far
Elche record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta Vigo record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Elche vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Celta Vigo | Elche | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-28 | Elche | Celta Vigo | La Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Elche vs Celta Vigo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.1%, draw 29.2%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.32 | 2.68 |
| Bet365 | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 3.24 | 2.61 |
| Pinnacle | 2.80 | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.56 | 3.04 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
44 snapshots recorded, from .