La Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Alaves
vs
Atletico Madrid
1 – 2 Full time
| 33′ | Alejandro Grimaldo | ||
| 45′ | Ademola Lookman | ||
| 45′ | Robin Le Normand | ||
| 45′ | Lucas Boyé | ||
| 45′ | Jonathan DavidAlejandro Baena Rodríguez | ||
| 45′ | Ademola LookmanJulián Álvarez | ||
| 57′ | Pablo Barrios RivasLee Kang-In | ||
| 61′ | Angel Pérez Hidalgo | ||
| 62′ | Robin Le NormandDávid Hancko | ||
| 64′ | Antonio BlancoCarlos Protesoni | ||
| 64′ | Toni MartínezMariano Díaz | ||
| 64′ | Lucas BoyéAnder Guevara | ||
| 71′ | Nicolas ValentiniVille Koski | ||
| 73′ | Giuliano Simeone BaldiniAlexander Sørloth | ||
| 79′ | Denis SuárezAitor Mañas | ||
| 87′ | Cristian Romero | ||
| 90′ | Johnny Cardoso |
Alaves
27%
Draw
26%
Atletico Madrid
47%
Match stats
| 8 | Shots | 22 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 32 | Possession % | 68 |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 276 | Accurate passes | 642 |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.4% | 28.4% | 28.1% |
| Market | 21.8% | 25.2% | 53.0% |
| Final | 27.2% | 26.0% | 46.7% |
| Edge | +5.4% | +0.8% | -6.2% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
82%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
7%
Alaves and Atletico Madrid expected goals
Alaves
1.58
Atletico Madrid
1.31
Total expected goals: 2.90
Alaves and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.86 -14%
Atletico Madrid
Attack
1.32 +32%
Defence
0.97 -3%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: result vs prediction
Alaves 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 46.7% | 2.14 | -6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 27.2% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 46.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.0% | |
| Loss | 71.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.3% |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid stats
Alaves and Atletico Madrid recent form
| Alaves |
DLLWWD |
| Atletico Madrid |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alaves and Atletico Madrid going into this match
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Alaves wins
2Draws
6Atletico Madrid wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-02 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2021-09-25 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-03-21 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-03 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.9%, draw 25.3%, away 52.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.57 | 3.92 | 1.85 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.87 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 3.80 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.82 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 4.45 | 3.76 | 1.83 |
| SBO | 3.92 | 3.39 | 1.80 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
| pinnacle | 4.22 | 3.74 | 1.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
4.37 ▲ +0.62
X
3.78 ▲ +0.21
2
1.80 ▼ -0.18
67 snapshots recorded, from .