Alaves
vs
Atletico Madrid
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atletico Madrid
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.5% | 28.5% | 28.1% |
| Market | 22.0% | 25.4% | 52.6% |
| Final | 27.4% | 26.2% | 46.5% |
| Edge | +21.5% | +3.1% | -24.5% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid match preview
Alaves faces Atletico Madrid in a La Liga matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 28% probability of an Alaves win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 46% likelihood of an Atletico Madrid victory. The expected goals suggest Alaves may score 1.58 while Atletico Madrid is projected to net 1.31 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with a 7% probability.
Recent form shows Alaves with two wins, two draws, and two losses, while Atletico Madrid has three wins, two losses, and one win in their last match. In their last six encounters, Alaves has secured one victory, while Atletico Madrid has won three times and there have been two draws. The probabilities indicate a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 61%.
Alaves and Atletico Madrid team news
Alaves news
- F. Garces — suspended
- M. Rodriguez — ankle injury
- V. Koski — muscle injury
Atletico Madrid news
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alaves and Atletico Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Alaves and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Atletico Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 46.5% | 2.15 | -24.5% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 27.4% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 46.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 13.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.0% | |
| Loss | 71.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 0-0 | 7.3% |
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid stats
Alaves and Atletico Madrid recent form
| Alaves |
DLLWWD |
| Atletico Madrid |
WWWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alaves and Atletico Madrid season so far
Alaves record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-11-23 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-02 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 4-1 |
| 2021-09-25 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-03-21 | Atletico Madrid | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-03 | Alaves | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.1%, draw 25.4%, away 52.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.57 | 3.92 | 1.85 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Betano | 4.30 | 3.70 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.30 | 3.80 | 1.84 |
| Marathonbet | 4.45 | 3.82 | 1.80 |
| Pinnacle | 4.39 | 3.78 | 1.84 |
| SBO | 3.73 | 3.28 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
| pinnacle | 4.22 | 3.74 | 1.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
66 snapshots recorded, from .