Garuda Lions
Today
La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 9

Celta Vigo vs Alaves

2 – 1 Full time

15′Sebastián Cáceres
45′Toni Martínez
45′Ilaix MoribaAleix Febas
45′Williot SwedbergJavier Rueda García
53′Ferran Jutglà
62′Jonny OttoHugo Novoa Ramos
62′Toni MartínezMariano Díaz
62′Carles AleñáDenis Suárez
70′Couhaib DriouechIago Aspas
70′Hugo BurcioAndrés Antañón Vieites
71′Javier Rodríguez Galiano
77′Sebastián CáceresMarcos Alonso
87′Hugo Novoa Ramos
88′Abderrahmane RebbachAitor Mañas
88′Antonio BlancoAnder Guevara

Municipal de Balaídos, VigoReferee: Jose Luis Munuera Montero

Celta Vigo 41%
Draw 30%
Alaves 29%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 20
3 Shots on target 9
48 Possession % 52
0 Corners 4
14 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 3
8 Saves 1
380 Accurate passes 396

Celta Vigo vs Alaves overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Celta Vigo vs Alaves

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCelta VigoDrawAlaves
Model34.7%33.2%32.1%
Market43.3%28.8%27.9%
Final41.2%29.9%28.9%
Edge-2.2%+1.1%+1.1%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Celta Vigo ↓ / Alaves → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 8% 1 9% 16% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 12%

Celta Vigo and Alaves expected goals

Celta Vigo 1.15
Alaves 1.15

Total expected goals: 2.30

Celta Vigo and Alaves attack and defence ratings

Celta Vigo

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Alaves

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves: result vs prediction

Celta Vigo 2 – 1 Alaves

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Celta Vigo vs Alaves markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Celta Vigo 41.2% 2.43 -2.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.1% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.5% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.1% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.2% 1.53 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Celta Vigo41.2%
Draw29.9%
Alaves28.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.9%
Under 2.558.1%
Both teams to scoreYes50.5%
No49.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.1%
12 (either side)70.1%
X2 (draw or away)58.8%
Handicap -1Celta Vigo win16.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss65.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-115.8%
0-012.1%
1-08.8%

Celta Vigo vs Alaves stats

Celta Vigo and Alaves recent form

newest first
Celta Vigo LDWLDD
Alaves LDLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Celta Vigo and Alaves going into this match

league record before kick-off

Celta Vigo record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alaves record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Celta Vigo wins 2Draws 2Alaves wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga3-4
2025-11-22AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga0-1
2025-01-27AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga1-1
2024-08-16Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga2-1
2024-04-27AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga3-0
2023-09-28Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga1-1
2022-05-07Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga4-0
2021-11-27AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga1-2
2021-04-04AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga1-3
2020-12-20Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.8%, draw 29.0%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.26 3.44 3.54
Bet365 2.20 3.25 3.40
BetVictor 2.20 3.30 3.40
Betano 2.12 3.25 3.70
Betfair 2.15 3.25 3.60
Dafabet 2.18 3.35 3.55
Marathonbet 2.20 3.35 3.44
Pinnacle 2.23 3.33 3.51
SBO 2.11 2.97 3.13
William Hill 2.15 3.25 3.30
pinnacle 2.00 3.40 3.87

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.20
X 3.31 ▼ -0.08
2 3.42 ▼ -0.45

29 snapshots recorded, from .