Garuda Lions
Today
La Liga · ·Matchday 9

Celta Vigo vs Alaves

Garuda Lions Prediction: Celta Vigo

1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability

Bet on Celta Vigo

Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 41%
Draw 30%
Alaves 29%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Celta Vigo wins
41%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
88%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
50%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
9% of simulated outcomes

Celta Vigo vs Alaves overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Celta Vigo vs Alaves

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCelta VigoDrawAlaves
Model34.9%33.2%31.9%
Market43.4%28.7%27.9%
Final41.2%29.9%28.9%
Edge-8.5%+4.5%+4.0%

Confidence: High

Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves match preview

Celta Vigo faces Alaves in a La Liga matchup with Celta Vigo holding a 44% probability of winning, while Alaves stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Celta Vigo, with an expected goals tally of 1.17 for Celta Vigo and 1.11 for Alaves. Recent form shows Celta Vigo with a series of draws and one win, while Alaves has experienced mixed results with two wins in their last six matches.

In their last six encounters, the head-to-head record is evenly matched with Celta Vigo and Alaves each securing two wins and two draws. The probability of over 2.5 goals is calculated at 42%, and there is a 50% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this forecast is A, indicating a strong level of certainty in the predictions.

Celta Vigo and Alaves team news

injuries & suspensions

Celta Vigo news

  • B. Iglesias — muscle injury
  • C. Starfelt — muscle injury
  • J. El Abdellaoui — knee injury
  • M. Roman — knee injury
  • P. Duran — calf injury

Alaves news

  • A. Perez — suspended
  • F. Garces — suspended
  • M. Rodriguez — ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Celta Vigo ↓ / Alaves → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 8% 1 9% 16% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 42%
No goals 12%

Celta Vigo and Alaves expected goals

Celta Vigo 1.15
Alaves 1.15

Total expected goals: 2.30

Celta Vigo and Alaves attack and defence ratings

Celta Vigo

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Alaves

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Celta Vigo vs Alaves markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Celta Vigo 41.2% 2.42 -8.5% 2.26
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.2% 1.72 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.5% 1.98 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.1% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 65.1% 1.54 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Celta Vigo41.2%
Draw29.9%
Alaves28.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.8%
Under 2.558.2%
Both teams to scoreYes50.5%
No49.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.1%
12 (either side)70.1%
X2 (draw or away)58.8%
Handicap -1Celta Vigo win16.0%
Push (exactly one goal)18.8%
Loss65.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-115.8%
0-012.1%
1-08.8%
Compare prices for this pick

Celta Vigo vs Alaves stats

Celta Vigo and Alaves recent form

newest first
Celta Vigo LDWLDD
Alaves LDLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Celta Vigo and Alaves season so far

league record

Celta Vigo record

  • They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alaves record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Celta Vigo wins 2Draws 2Alaves wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga3-4
2025-11-22AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga0-1
2025-01-27AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga1-1
2024-08-16Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga2-1
2024-04-27AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga3-0
2023-09-28Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga1-1
2022-05-07Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga4-0
2021-11-27AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga1-2
2021-04-04AlavesCelta VigoLa Liga1-3
2020-12-20Celta VigoAlavesLa Liga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Celta Vigo vs Alaves odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 29.0%, away 27.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.26 3.44 3.54
Bet365 2.20 3.25 3.40
BetVictor 2.20 3.30 3.40
Betano 2.12 3.25 3.70
Betfair 2.15 3.25 3.60
Dafabet 2.18 3.35 3.55
Marathonbet 2.20 3.35 3.44
Pinnacle 2.21 3.34 3.54
SBO 2.11 2.97 3.13
William Hill 2.15 3.25 3.30
pinnacle 2.00 3.40 3.87
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.20 ▲ +0.20
X 3.32 ▼ -0.08
2 3.42 ▼ -0.45

28 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Celta Vigo Predicted score 1 – 0 High Bet Now
v Bet Now