UEFA Europa League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Celtic vs Celta Vigo

1 – 2 Full time

23′Camilo Duran
47′Mika Baur
58′Callum OsmandJames Forrest
63′Hugo BurcioIlaix Moriba
63′Iago AspasWilliot Swedberg
67′M. O'Neill
68′Javier Rodríguez Galiano
71′Javier Rodríguez Galiano
73′Haissem HassanKasper Hogh
77′Ferran JutglàPablo Durán Fernández
79′Mika BaurOliver Sorensen
80′Camilo DuranSebastian Tounekti
85′Liam Scales
85′Hugo Alvarez AntunezJavi Galán
85′Javier Rueda GarcíaAndrés Antañón Vieites
89′Oliver Sorensen
90′Colby Donovan

Celtic Park, GlasgowReferee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov

Celtic 44%
Draw 25%
Celta Vigo 31%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

8 Shots 22
4 Shots on target 4
44 Possession % 56
2 Corners 6
10 Fouls 5
3 Offsides 2
2 Saves 3
436 Accurate passes 579

Celtic vs Celta Vigo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Celtic vs Celta Vigo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCelticDrawCelta Vigo
Model69.5%18.8%11.7%
Market35.2%27.2%37.6%
Final43.8%25.1%31.2%
Edge+8.6%-2.1%-6.5%

Confidence: Medium · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Celtic

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Celtic below our published probability: +8.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Celtic ↓ / Celta Vigo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 9% 2 11% 10% 3 8% 8% 4+ 9% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 64%
No goals 5%

Celtic and Celta Vigo expected goals

Celtic 2.38
Celta Vigo 0.91

Total expected goals: 3.29

Celtic and Celta Vigo attack and defence ratings

Celtic

Attack 1.56 +56%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Celta Vigo

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo: result vs prediction

Celtic 1 – 2 Celta Vigo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa League

Before and after this match

Celtic vs Celta Vigo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Celtic 43.8% 2.28 +8.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.2% 1.56 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.2% 1.81 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.9% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Celtic win 47.4% 2.11 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Celtic43.8%
Draw25.1%
Celta Vigo31.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%
Both teams to scoreYes55.2%
No44.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.8%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)56.2%
Handicap -1Celtic win47.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss30.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-010.5%
2-19.6%
1-18.8%

Celtic vs Celta Vigo stats

Celtic and Celta Vigo recent form

newest first
Celtic WLWLLW
Celta Vigo WLDWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Celtic vs Celta Vigo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.2%, draw 27.2%, away 37.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.74 3.60 2.57
Bet365 2.70 3.50 2.50
BetVictor 2.63 3.60 2.45
Betano 2.70 3.50 2.55
Betfair 2.70 3.40 2.50
Dafabet 2.70 3.50 2.60
Marathonbet 2.74 3.60 2.57
Pinnacle 2.74 3.54 2.59
SBO 2.45 3.02 2.42
William Hill 2.62 3.40 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 ▼ -0.22
X 3.50 ▲ +0.02
2 2.52 ▲ +0.19

12 snapshots recorded, from .