Hibernian
vs
Celtic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celtic
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.27.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Celtic is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hibernian vs Celtic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hibernian vs Celtic
| Probability | Hibernian | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.5% | 25.4% | 48.1% |
| Market | 17.6% | 21.1% | 61.3% |
| Final | 19.8% | 22.2% | 58.0% |
| Edge | +2.2% | +1.1% | -3.3% |
Why Celtic
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.27.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (our 58.0% × 1.60 − 1).
Hibernian vs Celtic match preview
Hibernian faces Celtic in the Scotland Premiership with a kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Hibernian has a 20% chance of winning, while Celtic holds a 58% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with expected goals of 1.27 for Hibernian and 1.77 for Celtic. Recent form shows Hibernian struggling with six consecutive losses, while Celtic has mixed results with two wins and four losses in their last six matches.
In terms of scoring, our model indicates a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Celtic has dominated with seven wins compared to Hibernian's two victories and one draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hibernian and Celtic expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.05
Hibernian and Celtic attack and defence ratings
Hibernian
Celtic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hibernian vs Celtic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 58.0% | 1.72 | -3.3% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernian | 19.8% |
| Draw | 22.2% | |
| Celtic | 58.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 51.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.5% |
Hibernian vs Celtic stats
Hibernian and Celtic recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hibernian and Celtic season so far
Hibernian record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Celtic record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hibernian vs Celtic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Hibernian | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2026-02-22 | Celtic | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Hibernian | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Celtic | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-10 | Celtic | Hibernian | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Celtic | Hibernian | Scotland FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-22 | Hibernian | Celtic | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Celtic | Hibernian | Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Celtic | Hibernian | League Cup | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-11 | Hibernian | Celtic | Premiership | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hibernian vs Celtic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.7%, draw 21.4%, away 60.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.16 | 4.33 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 5.25 | 4.50 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 4.70 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 4.60 | 1.57 |
| Marathonbet | 5.25 | 4.33 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 5.50 | 4.74 | 1.55 |
| SBO | 4.19 | 3.81 | 1.55 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
29 snapshots recorded, from .