ST Mirren
vs
Dundee
Garuda Lions Prediction: ST Mirren
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
ST Mirren vs Dundee overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ST Mirren vs Dundee
| Probability | ST Mirren | Draw | Dundee |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.7% | 26.3% | 52.0% |
| Market | 46.4% | 25.7% | 27.9% |
| Final | 40.2% | 25.9% | 33.9% |
| Edge | -24.7% | +0.6% | +24.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
ST Mirren vs Dundee match preview
ST Mirren will host Dundee in the Scotland Premiership on October 24, 2026. According to our model, ST Mirren has a 40% chance of winning, while Dundee's probability stands at 34%, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of ST Mirren, occurring at a rate of 6%. The expected goals for ST Mirren is 1.03, compared to Dundee's 1.70, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, ST Mirren has struggled with five consecutive losses followed by a win, while Dundee has shown better performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows ST Mirren with one win, one draw, and two wins for Dundee. Both teams have a 54% probability of scoring, and there is a 51% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ST Mirren and Dundee expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
ST Mirren and Dundee attack and defence ratings
ST Mirren
Dundee
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
ST Mirren vs Dundee markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 40.2% | 2.49 | -24.7% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 40.2% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Dundee | 33.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.6% |
| No | 46.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Mirren win | 8.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.4% | |
| Loss | 78.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
ST Mirren vs Dundee stats
ST Mirren and Dundee recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ST Mirren and Dundee season so far
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundee record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ST Mirren vs Dundee head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Dundee | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | ST Mirren | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Dundee | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | ST Mirren | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ST Mirren vs Dundee odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.5%, draw 25.7%, away 27.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.62 | 3.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.65 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.00 | 3.62 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .