Motherwell
vs
Heart Of Midlothian
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heart Of Midlothian
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Heart Of Midlothian is the favourite, not a value bet.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian
| Probability | Motherwell | Draw | Heart Of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.6% | 23.2% | 35.2% |
| Market | 29.4% | 26.0% | 44.6% |
| Final | 32.5% | 25.3% | 42.2% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.7% | -2.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (our 42.2% × 2.20 − 1).
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian match preview
Motherwell faces Heart Of Midlothian in a crucial Scotland Premiership clash. According to our model, Motherwell has a 32% probability of winning, while Heart Of Midlothian stands at 42%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams are expected to score, with our model indicating a 72% likelihood for both teams to find the net. The expected goals for Motherwell is 1.93, compared to Heart Of Midlothian's 1.77.
In terms of recent form, Motherwell has struggled, recording five consecutive losses before a recent win, while Heart Of Midlothian has two losses, a draw, and two mixed results in their last five matches. The head-to-head record shows that in the last ten encounters, Motherwell has secured one win, while Heart Of Midlothian has five wins and four draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.71
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian attack and defence ratings
Motherwell
Heart Of Midlothian
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 42.2% | 2.37 | -2.3% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 32.5% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Heart Of Midlothian | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.9% |
| No | 28.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win | 18.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.7% | |
| Loss | 64.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.5% |
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian stats
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian recent form
| Motherwell |
LLLLLW |
| Heart Of Midlothian |
LLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Motherwell and Heart Of Midlothian season so far
Motherwell record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Heart Of Midlothian record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Motherwell | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Heart Of Midlothian | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Motherwell | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Heart Of Midlothian | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-10 | Heart Of Midlothian | Motherwell | Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Motherwell | Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2025-01-02 | Heart Of Midlothian | Motherwell | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-25 | Motherwell | Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-17 | Heart Of Midlothian | Motherwell | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2023-11-11 | Motherwell | Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Motherwell vs Heart Of Midlothian odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.5%, draw 26.0%, away 44.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.58 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.58 | 2.08 |
| Pinnacle | 3.35 | 3.82 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.15 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
29 snapshots recorded, from .