Kilmarnock
vs
Motherwell
3 – 2 Full time
| 2′ | Greg Kiltie | ||
| 17′ | Alex·Lowry | ||
| 33′ | Michael-John Kamson-KamaraJamie Brandon | ||
| 35′ | Bailey RiceAaron Tshibola | ||
| 55′ | George Stanger | ||
| 56′ | Sebastian Palmer-Houlden | ||
| 58′ | Tyreece John-Jules | ||
| 68′ | Sebastian Palmer-HouldenEythor Bjørgolfsson | ||
| 68′ | Alex·LowryJardell Kanga | ||
| 68′ | Martin MoormannJake Max Girdwood-Reich | ||
| 69′ | Greg Kiltie | ||
| 75′ | Lukas FadingerDylan Levitt | ||
| 77′ | Greg KiltieIeuan Gwyn Owen | ||
| 77′ | Tyreece John-JulesDjenairo Daniels | ||
| 81′ | Tom SparrowJohnny Koutroumbis |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 415 | Accurate passes | 381 |
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kilmarnock vs Motherwell
| Probability | Kilmarnock | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.2% | 25.7% | 27.1% |
| Market | 30.0% | 25.6% | 44.4% |
| Final | 34.3% | 25.6% | 40.1% |
| Edge | +17.2% | +0.1% | -17.3% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kilmarnock and Motherwell expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Kilmarnock and Motherwell attack and defence ratings
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell: result vs prediction
Kilmarnock 3 – 2 Motherwell
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Motherwell | 40.1% | 2.50 | -17.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kilmarnock | 34.3% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Motherwell | 40.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.5% |
| No | 39.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Motherwell win | 11.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 72.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 1-0 | 7.4% |
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell stats
Kilmarnock and Motherwell recent form
| Kilmarnock |
LDWDLL |
| Motherwell |
LLLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kilmarnock and Motherwell going into this match
Kilmarnock record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Motherwell | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Kilmarnock | Motherwell | Scotland Premiership | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-30 | Motherwell | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-14 | Motherwell | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Kilmarnock | Motherwell | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-08 | Kilmarnock | Motherwell | Premiership | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-20 | Motherwell | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Motherwell | Kilmarnock | League Cup | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-03 | Motherwell | Kilmarnock | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Kilmarnock | Motherwell | Premiership | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kilmarnock vs Motherwell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 25.6%, away 44.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.13 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.77 | 2.22 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.21 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
55 snapshots recorded, from .