Garuda Lions
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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 9

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd

1 – 1 Full time

21′Josh Fowler
42′Dylan Tait
45′Josh FowlerRuari Paton
45′Daniel Bennieabdoulaye yoro
63′Idjessi MetsokoZachary Sapsford
63′Dylan TaitLachlan Rose
66′Lyall Cameron
79′Lyall Cameron
82′Taylor StevenKai Fotheringham
82′Sam StantonJamie Gullan
84′Reece McAlear
88′Jesse RandallNeil Farrugia
90′Zidane Iqbal
90′Neil Farrugia
90′Jason Holt

McDiarmid Park, Perth

ST Johnstone 40%
Draw 27%
Dundee Utd 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 7
38 Possession % 62
4 Corners 7
11 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 2
6 Saves 3
272 Accurate passes 506

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd overview

Garuda Lions analysis: ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityST JohnstoneDrawDundee Utd
Model51.2%28.7%20.1%
Market35.6%27.0%37.4%
Final39.5%27.4%33.0%
Edge+15.5%+1.7%-17.2%

Confidence: Low

Why ST Johnstone

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices ST Johnstone below the model: +15.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

ST Johnstone ↓ / Dundee Utd → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 7% 1 13% 13% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 69%
3+ goals 41%
No goals 11%

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd expected goals

ST Johnstone 1.49
Dundee Utd 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.34

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd attack and defence ratings

ST Johnstone

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Dundee Utd

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd: result vs prediction

ST Johnstone 1 – 1 Dundee Utd

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 ST Johnstone 39.5% 2.53 +15.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score No 54.5% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.8% 2.05 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2ST Johnstone39.5%
Draw27.4%
Dundee Utd33.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541.4%
Under 2.558.6%
Both teams to scoreYes45.5%
No54.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.0%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)60.5%
Handicap -1ST Johnstone win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)24.4%
Loss48.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.4%
1-013.2%
0-010.9%

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd stats

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd recent form

newest first
ST Johnstone WDLWDL
Dundee Utd WWDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

ST Johnstone and Dundee Utd going into this match

league record before kick-off

ST Johnstone record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Dundee Utd record

  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4ST Johnstone wins 1Draws 5Dundee Utd wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-04-12Dundee UtdST JohnstonePremiership1-0
2024-12-26ST JohnstoneDundee UtdPremiership1-2
2024-08-24Dundee UtdST JohnstonePremiership2-0
2023-05-06ST JohnstoneDundee UtdPremiership1-0
2023-02-18Dundee UtdST JohnstonePremiership1-2
2023-01-02ST JohnstoneDundee UtdPremiership0-1
2022-10-01Dundee UtdST JohnstonePremiership1-2
2022-02-05ST JohnstoneDundee UtdPremiership0-0
2021-10-30Dundee UtdST JohnstonePremiership0-1
2021-08-22ST JohnstoneDundee UtdPremiership0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 27.0%, away 37.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.62 3.42 2.49
Bet365 2.62 3.50 2.55
BetVictor 2.63 3.50 2.50
Betano 2.62 3.55 2.57
Betfair 2.63 3.40 2.50
Dafabet 2.65 3.55 2.60
Marathonbet 2.62 3.42 2.49
Pinnacle 2.73 3.61 2.57
SBO 2.49 3.09 2.34
William Hill 2.62 3.30 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 ▲ +0.32
X 3.46 ▼ -0.02
2 2.50 ▼ -0.36

55 snapshots recorded, from .