Aberdeen
vs
ST Mirren
3 – 1 Full time
| 2′ | Brad Lyons | ||
| 31′ | Ryan Carr | ||
| 42′ | Eseosa Sule | ||
| 45′ | Connor Patrick RonanStuart Armstrong | ||
| 45′ | Brad LyonsTony Yogane | ||
| 56′ | Paul Nsio | ||
| 58′ | Kevin Nisbet | ||
| 59′ | Luke ThomasSamuel Antonio Ramos Linares | ||
| 67′ | Paul NsioFraser Taylor | ||
| 71′ | Toyosi OlusanyaAyoub Mouloua | ||
| 72′ | Ayoub Mouloua | ||
| 74′ | Eseosa SuleJake Young | ||
| 76′ | Lewis SmithEmmanuel Gyamfi | ||
| 77′ | Stuart Armstrong | ||
| 90′ | Kevin NisbetFindlay Marshall |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 34 | Possession % | 66 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 200 | Accurate passes | 452 |
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aberdeen vs ST Mirren
| Probability | Aberdeen | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 28.4% | 17.2% |
| Market | 51.1% | 25.4% | 23.4% |
| Final | 51.9% | 26.2% | 21.9% |
| Edge | +3.3% | +3.0% | -6.3% |
Why Aberdeen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.74.
- The market prices Aberdeen below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aberdeen and ST Mirren expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Aberdeen and ST Mirren attack and defence ratings
Aberdeen
ST Mirren
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren: result vs prediction
Aberdeen 3 – 1 ST Mirren
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 51.9% | 1.93 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 51.9% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| ST Mirren | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.0% |
| No | 58.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-1 | 13.0% | |
| 2-0 | 12.0% |
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren stats
Aberdeen and ST Mirren recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aberdeen and ST Mirren going into this match
Aberdeen record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Aberdeen | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-04 | ST Mirren | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Aberdeen | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 3-3 |
| 2025-10-18 | ST Mirren | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | ST Mirren | Aberdeen | Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Aberdeen | ST Mirren | Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2024-11-23 | ST Mirren | Aberdeen | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-11 | Aberdeen | ST Mirren | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | ST Mirren | Aberdeen | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-30 | Aberdeen | ST Mirren | Premiership | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aberdeen vs ST Mirren odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.3%, draw 25.1%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.62 | 3.91 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.85 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.88 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.62 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.84 | 4.31 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.22 | 3.46 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
55 snapshots recorded, from .