Heart Of Midlothian
vs
ST Mirren
Garuda Lions Prediction: Heart Of Midlothian
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren
| Probability | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | ST Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 25.6% | 21.4% |
| Market | 64.8% | 19.8% | 15.4% |
| Final | 61.9% | 21.2% | 16.9% |
| Edge | -11.8% | +5.8% | +6.0% |
Why Heart Of Midlothian
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren match preview
Heart Of Midlothian enters the match against ST Mirren with a 59% probability of winning, while ST Mirren stands at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Heart Of Midlothian, with an expected goals tally of 1.77 for them and 1.06 for ST Mirren. Both teams have a 55% chance of scoring, and there is a 54% likelihood that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Heart Of Midlothian has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while ST Mirren has experienced three losses, one win, and a draw in the same period. The head-to-head record over the last four encounters shows Heart Of Midlothian with one win, two draws, and one win for ST Mirren. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren attack and defence ratings
Heart Of Midlothian
ST Mirren
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 61.9% | 1.62 | -11.8% | 1.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 61.9% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| ST Mirren | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.4% |
| No | 44.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Heart Of Midlothian win | 30.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren stats
Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren recent form
| Heart Of Midlothian |
DLWWWD |
| ST Mirren |
LLLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren season so far
Heart Of Midlothian record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Heart Of Midlothian | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | League Cup | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-26 | Heart Of Midlothian | ST Mirren | Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2025-02-10 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland FA Cup | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Heart Of Midlothian | ST Mirren | Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2024-09-21 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-15 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-06 | ST Mirren | Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.8%, draw 19.8%, away 15.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.65 | 6.06 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 5.25 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.65 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 4.79 | 6.11 |
| SBO | 1.39 | 4.16 | 5.32 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
42 snapshots recorded, from .