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Scotland Premiership · Full time ·Matchday 8

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren

5 – 0 Full time

20′Laurent mendy
23′Calvin Miller
30′Alexander Gogić
32′Calvin Miller
45′Chris Mochrie
45′Fraser TaylorJake Young
45′Chris MochrieLuke Thomas
45′Ryan CarrLiam Donnelly
50′Calvin Miller
54′Claudio Rafael Soares Braga
56′Calvin MillerSabah Kerjota
56′Eduardo AgeuOisin McEntee
65′Severin Sabri Guendouz
65′Wouter Vrancken
67′Ismeal KabiaEseosa Sule
73′James wilsonJerome Williams
74′Claudio Rafael Soares BragaSeverin Sabri Guendouz
80′Josh Mcpake
82′Josh McpakeStuart Findlay
82′Calvin RamsayMarcus Fraser
90′Killian Phillips

Tynecastle Park, EdinburghReferee: N. Walsh

Heart Of Midlothian 62%
Draw 21%
ST Mirren 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 1
49 Possession % 51
6 Corners 2
16 Fouls 18
3 Offsides 1
1 Saves 1
325 Accurate passes 339

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHeart Of MidlothianDrawST Mirren
Model53.0%25.6%21.4%
Market64.8%19.7%15.5%
Final61.9%21.2%17.0%
Edge-3.0%+1.5%+1.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Heart Of Midlothian

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Heart Of Midlo ↓ / ST Mirren → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 12% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren expected goals

Heart Of Midlothian 1.77
ST Mirren 1.06

Total expected goals: 2.83

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren attack and defence ratings

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.13 +13%

ST Mirren

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren: result vs prediction

Heart Of Midlothian 5 – 0 ST Mirren

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Scotland Premiership

Before and after this match

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Heart Of Midlothian 61.9% 1.62 -3.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 53.8% 1.86 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.4% 1.81 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.0% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.0% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Heart Of Midlothian61.9%
Draw21.2%
ST Mirren17.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%
Both teams to scoreYes55.4%
No44.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.0%
12 (either side)78.8%
X2 (draw or away)38.1%
Handicap -1Heart Of Midlothian win30.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.7%
Loss47.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.2%
2-19.8%
1-09.3%

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren stats

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren recent form

newest first
Heart Of Midlothian DLWWWD
ST Mirren LLLWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Heart Of Midlothian and ST Mirren going into this match

league record before kick-off

Heart Of Midlothian record

  • They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

ST Mirren record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Heart Of Midlothian wins 4Draws 2ST Mirren wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-03ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership1-0
2026-01-14Heart Of MidlothianST MirrenScotland Premiership2-0
2025-10-29ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianScotland Premiership2-2
2025-08-16ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianLeague Cup1-1
2025-02-26Heart Of MidlothianST MirrenPremiership3-1
2025-02-10ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianScotland FA Cup1-1
2024-10-19Heart Of MidlothianST MirrenPremiership4-0
2024-09-21ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianPremiership2-1
2024-05-15ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianPremiership2-2
2024-04-06ST MirrenHeart Of MidlothianPremiership1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Heart Of Midlothian vs ST Mirren odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 64.8%, draw 19.7%, away 15.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.45 4.65 6.06
Bet365 1.45 5.00 5.75
BetVictor 1.44 4.60 6.50
Betano 1.50 5.00 6.30
Betfair 1.44 5.00 5.50
Dafabet 1.48 5.00 6.20
Marathonbet 1.44 4.65 6.05
Pinnacle 1.48 4.87 6.29
SBO 1.42 4.39 5.70
William Hill 1.44 4.50 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.44 ▼ -0.10
X 4.76 ▲ +0.61
2 6.05 ▲ +0.55

43 snapshots recorded, from .