UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-10-15T19:00:00Z UTC ·League Stage - 1

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

Bet on FC Nordsjaelland

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

Heart Of Midlothian

33%

Draw

25%

FC Nordsjaelland

42%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Chance FC Nordsjaelland wins

42%

most likely outcome

Chance of a goal

94%

at least one goal in the match

Both teams score

65%

goals at both ends

Most likely score with our pick

1 – 2

9% of simulated outcomes

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Heart Of Midlothian	Draw	FC Nordsjaelland
Model	31.3%	25.0%	43.7%
Market	33.1%	25.6%	41.2%
Final	32.7%	25.5%	41.8%
Edge	-1.9%	-0.7%	+2.5%

Confidence: Low

Why FC Nordsjaelland

The market prices FC Nordsjaelland below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded 2026-10-09 — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland match preview

Heart Of Midlothian will face FC Nordsjaelland in the UEFA Europa Conference League on October 15, 2026. The model indicates a 31% probability of a Heart Of Midlothian victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 44% likelihood of an FC Nordsjaelland win. The expected goals suggest Heart Of Midlothian will score 1.48, while FC Nordsjaelland is projected to net 1.78.

In terms of recent form, Heart Of Midlothian has recorded a draw, a loss, and three wins in their last six matches, while FC Nordsjaelland has experienced a loss, two wins, a draw, and another loss in their recent outings. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 63%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 65%, indicating a potentially competitive match.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

81%

3+ goals

57%

No goals

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals

Heart Of Midlothian

1.35

FC Nordsjaelland

1.61

Total expected goals: 2.97

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland attack and defence ratings

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack

1.09 +9%

Defence

1.09 +9%

FC Nordsjaelland

Attack

1.24 +24%

Defence

0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

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Before and after this match

Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Heart Of Midlothian – ST Mirren, 2026-10-10
Heart Of Midlothian, next: Trabzonspor v Heart Of Midlothian analysis
FC Nordsjaelland, previous: FC Nordsjaelland vs Odense prediction
FC Nordsjaelland, next: FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia analysis

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Nordsjaelland	41.8%	2.39	+2.5%	2.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.2%	1.58	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	65.2%	1.53	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.5%	1.34	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	57.5%	1.74	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Heart Of Midlothian	32.7%
	Draw	25.5%
	FC Nordsjaelland	41.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63.2%
	Under 2.5	36.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	65.2%
	No	34.8%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	58.2%
	12 (either side)	74.5%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.3%
Handicap -1	FC Nordsjaelland win	22.3%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.2%
	Loss	57.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.1%
	1-2	9.0%
	2-1	7.5%

Compare prices for this pick

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland stats

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland recent form

newest first

Heart Of Midlothian	DLWWWD
FC Nordsjaelland	DLWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland season so far

league record

FC Nordsjaelland record

They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.1%, draw 25.6%, away 41.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.92	3.71	2.35
Bet365	2.90	3.60	2.25
BetVictor	2.75	3.70	2.20
Betano	2.85	3.65	2.37
Betfair	2.80	3.70	2.25
Dafabet	2.85	3.70	2.34
Marathonbet	2.82	3.58	2.27
Pinnacle	2.88	3.68	2.29
SBO	2.54	3.30	2.20
William Hill	2.62	3.50	2.30

Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.83 —

X 3.67 —

2 2.28 —

2 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-09T08:10:02Z.

Prediction snapshot 2 FC Nordsjaelland Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now