UEFA Europa Conference League · 2026-10-15T19:00:00Z UTC Full time ·League Stage - 1

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

1 – 1 Full time

5′			Cláudio Braga
33′			O. McEntee
43′			Victor Nelsson
47′			James Wilson
55′			Ibrahim Adel
64′			M. BrinkN. Rojkjaer
64′			R. NorheimL. Sadio
66′			Harry Milne
70′			C. BragaS. Kerjota
72′			A. LindH. Rasmussen
77′			J. WilsonJ. Williams
83′			V. NelssonV. Berthelsen
86′			N. Rojkjaer
87′			H. MilneS. Kingsley
87′			O. McEnteeJ. Altena
87′			J. McPakeR. Mato
89′			Juho Lähteenmäki

Tynecastle Park, EdinburghReferee: D. Kos

Heart Of Midlothian

34%

Draw

25%

FC Nordsjaelland

41%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
44	Possession %	56
6	Corners	7
14	Fouls	14
1	Offsides	0
2	Saves	6
286	Accurate passes	406

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Heart Of Midlothian	Draw	FC Nordsjaelland
Model	39.7%	26.0%	34.3%
Market	32.3%	25.1%	42.6%
Final	34.1%	25.3%	40.5%
Edge	+1.9%	+0.2%	-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

94%

2+ goals

83%

3+ goals

60%

No goals

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland expected goals

Heart Of Midlothian

1.61

FC Nordsjaelland

1.49

Total expected goals: 3.10

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland attack and defence ratings

Heart Of Midlothian

Attack

1.29 +29%

Defence

1.01 +1%

FC Nordsjaelland

Attack

1.24 +24%

Defence

0.75 -25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland: result vs prediction

Heart Of Midlothian 1 – 1 FC Nordsjaelland

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

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Before and after this match

Heart Of Midlothian, previous: Heart Of Midlothian – ST Mirren, 2026-10-10
Heart Of Midlothian, next: Celtic v Heart Of Midlothian analysis
FC Nordsjaelland, previous: FC Nordsjaelland vs Odense prediction
FC Nordsjaelland, next: Lyngby – FC Nordsjaelland, 2026-10-18

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	FC Nordsjaelland	40.5%	2.47	-2.1%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.9%	1.67	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	63.1%	1.59	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	74.7%	1.34	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	65.6%	1.52	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Heart Of Midlothian	34.1%
	Draw	25.3%
	FC Nordsjaelland	40.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59.9%
	Under 2.5	40.1%
Both teams to score	Yes	63.1%
	No	36.9%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.5%
	12 (either side)	74.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	65.9%
Handicap -1	FC Nordsjaelland win	16.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	17.6%
	Loss	65.6%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.9%
	2-1	8.7%
	1-2	8.0%

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland stats

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland recent form

newest first

Heart Of Midlothian	WDLWWW
FC Nordsjaelland	DLWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Heart Of Midlothian and FC Nordsjaelland going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Nordsjaelland record

They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Heart Of Midlothian vs FC Nordsjaelland odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 25.1%, away 42.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.02	3.75	2.28
Bet365	2.90	3.75	2.20
BetVictor	2.80	3.75	2.20
Betano	2.90	3.70	2.30
Betfair	2.88	3.60	2.20
Dafabet	2.95	3.75	2.32
Marathonbet	2.91	3.62	2.20
Pinnacle	2.95	3.87	2.26
SBO	2.81	3.55	2.11
William Hill	2.88	3.50	2.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.06

X 3.73 ▲ +0.06

2 2.20 ▼ -0.08

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-09T08:10:02Z.