HNK Hajduk Split
vs
Ajax
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajax
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax
| Probability | HNK Hajduk Split | Draw | Ajax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.9% | 20.8% | 39.3% |
| Market | 14.8% | 20.4% | 64.8% |
| Final | 21.1% | 20.5% | 58.4% |
| Edge | +25.2% | +0.4% | -25.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax match preview
HNK Hajduk Split faces Ajax in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a predicted probability of 21% for Hajduk Split to win, 21% for a draw, and 58% for Ajax to secure the victory. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, occurring with a 6% probability. The expected goals are closely matched, with Hajduk Split at 2.22 and Ajax at 2.20, indicating a competitive matchup.
Both teams show strong offensive capabilities, with our model forecasting over 2.5 goals at 82% and both teams to score at 80%. Recent form shows Hajduk Split with a mixed record of L-W-W-L-W-W, while Ajax has been more consistent with a D-W-W-L-W-W streak. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.42
HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax attack and defence ratings
HNK Hajduk Split
Ajax
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajax | 58.4% | 1.71 | -25.6% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HNK Hajduk Split | 21.1% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Ajax | 58.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 18.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.8% |
| No | 20.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajax win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.6% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 7.2% |
| 2-1 | 6.5% | |
| 1-1 | 6.5% |
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax stats
HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax recent form
| HNK Hajduk Split |
LWWLWW |
| Ajax |
DWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax season so far
Ajax record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.8%, draw 20.4%, away 64.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.64 | 4.82 | 1.47 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.42 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 6.40 | 4.65 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 6.40 | 4.90 | 1.46 |
| Marathonbet | 6.40 | 4.65 | 1.42 |
| Pinnacle | 6.25 | 4.77 | 1.44 |
| SBO | 5.61 | 4.10 | 1.38 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .