CSKA Sofia
vs
Monaco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monaco
1 – 2 Predicted score · 5% model probability
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CSKA Sofia vs Monaco
| Probability | CSKA Sofia | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.8% | 22.1% | 17.1% |
| Market | 15.9% | 21.1% | 63.0% |
| Final | 27.1% | 21.4% | 51.5% |
| Edge | +44.9% | +0.9% | -45.8% |
Why Monaco
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco match preview
CSKA Sofia faces Monaco in the UEFA Europa Conference League with a probability of 27% for a CSKA Sofia win, 21% for a draw, and 51% for a Monaco victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 5%. The expected goals for CSKA Sofia stand at 2.13, while Monaco's expected goals are at 1.06.
Recent form shows CSKA Sofia with a record of D-W-W-D-W-L, while Monaco is on a strong run with W-D-W-W-W-W. Our model indicates a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score, suggesting an engaging match ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction is B.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CSKA Sofia and Monaco expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
CSKA Sofia and Monaco attack and defence ratings
CSKA Sofia
Monaco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
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- HNK Hajduk Split v Ajax — match page
- Panathinaikos vs Borac Banja Luka
- Gent vs Aarhus — team news & stats
- Universitatea Craiova vs Getafe — team news & stats
- KuPS vs Trabzonspor
- Mjallby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes — match page
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë v FC Midtjylland — match page
Before and after this match
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 51.5% | 1.94 | -45.8% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 27.1% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Monaco | 51.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.6% |
| No | 41.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 6.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 10.6% | |
| Loss | 82.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.3% |
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco stats
CSKA Sofia and Monaco recent form
| CSKA Sofia |
DWWDWL |
| Monaco |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
CSKA Sofia vs Monaco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.9%, draw 21.1%, away 63.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.17 | 4.57 | 1.53 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 4.45 | 1.53 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 6.00 | 4.60 | 1.51 |
| Marathonbet | 5.95 | 4.40 | 1.47 |
| Pinnacle | 5.46 | 4.53 | 1.52 |
| SBO | 5.42 | 3.88 | 1.42 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .