Lorient
vs
Monaco
Garuda Lions Prediction: Monaco
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Lorient vs Monaco overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lorient vs Monaco
| Probability | Lorient | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.9% | 26.7% | 37.4% |
| Market | 25.9% | 27.6% | 46.5% |
| Final | 28.4% | 27.4% | 44.2% |
| Edge | +10.0% | -0.9% | -9.1% |
Why Monaco
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Lorient vs Monaco match preview
Lorient faces Monaco in an intriguing Ligue 1 matchup, with our model assigning a 30% probability of a Lorient victory, a 27% chance of a draw, and a 44% likelihood of a Monaco win. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 1.46 for Lorient and 1.31 for Monaco. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Lorient recording two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches, while Monaco has been more consistent, with four wins and two draws in their last six outings.
Historically, Lorient has had the upper hand in their last four encounters with Monaco, securing two wins and two draws, while Monaco has yet to claim a victory in this period. The probabilities suggest a competitive match, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score.
Lorient and Monaco team news
Lorient news
- N. Mbamba — muscle injury
Monaco news
- E. Dier — muscle injury
- P. Brunner — suspended
- S. Idumbo — injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lorient and Monaco expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Lorient and Monaco attack and defence ratings
Lorient
Monaco
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lorient vs Monaco markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 44.2% | 2.26 | -9.1% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 28.4% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Monaco | 44.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.2% |
| No | 45.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 62.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 8.9% |
Lorient vs Monaco stats
Lorient and Monaco recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lorient and Monaco season so far
Lorient record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Monaco record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lorient vs Monaco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Monaco | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Lorient | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Monaco | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-17 | Lorient | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2023-04-16 | Monaco | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2023-01-11 | Lorient | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2022-02-13 | Monaco | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-13 | Lorient | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2021-02-14 | Monaco | Lorient | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2021-01-06 | Lorient | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 2-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lorient vs Monaco odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.3%, draw 27.5%, away 46.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.86 | 3.58 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 3.76 | 3.48 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.77 | 3.41 | 2.10 |
| SBO | 3.16 | 3.07 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .