Le Mans
vs
Toulouse
Garuda Lions Prediction: Toulouse
1 – 2 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Le Mans vs Toulouse overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Le Mans vs Toulouse
| Probability | Le Mans | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 21.7% | 23.4% |
| Market | 30.8% | 27.4% | 41.8% |
| Final | 36.9% | 25.9% | 37.2% |
| Edge | +24.1% | -5.7% | -18.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Le Mans and Toulouse expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
Le Mans and Toulouse attack and defence ratings
Le Mans
Toulouse
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Le Mans vs Toulouse markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 37.2% | 2.69 | -18.4% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Mans | 36.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Toulouse | 37.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win | 9.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.6% | |
| Loss | 76.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Le Mans vs Toulouse stats
Le Mans and Toulouse recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Le Mans and Toulouse season so far
Le Mans record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Toulouse record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Le Mans vs Toulouse head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Le Mans vs Toulouse odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.8%, draw 27.4%, away 41.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.24 | 3.57 | 2.34 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.27 |
| Marathonbet | 3.16 | 3.48 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.44 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .