Angers
vs
Marseille
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marseille
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Angers vs Marseille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Angers vs Marseille
| Probability | Angers | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.6% | 21.3% | 35.1% |
| Market | 27.7% | 25.3% | 47.0% |
| Final | 31.7% | 24.3% | 44.0% |
| Edge | +15.9% | -4.0% | -11.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Angers vs Marseille match preview
Angers will face Marseille in a Ligue 1 matchup on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Angers has a 33% chance of winning, while Marseille is favored with a 42% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Our model indicates a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 77%.
In terms of expected goals, Angers is forecasted to score 2.29, while Marseille is expected to net 2.02. Recent form shows Angers with a mixed record of L-W-D-L-W-L, while Marseille has struggled, recording W-L-L-L-L-L in their last six matches. Historically, in their last four encounters, Angers has not secured a win, with two draws and two victories for Marseille.
Angers and Marseille team news
Angers news
- J. Kalulu — groin injury
- J. Lefort — suspended
- O. Camara — thigh injury
Marseille news
- D. Cornelius — hip injury
- K. Abdallah — injury
- P. Hojbjerg — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Angers and Marseille expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.00
Angers and Marseille attack and defence ratings
Angers
Marseille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Angers vs Marseille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 44.0% | 2.27 | -11.9% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.9% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angers | 31.7% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Marseille | 44.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.5% |
| No | 26.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.8% | |
| Loss | 64.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Angers vs Marseille stats
Angers and Marseille recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Angers and Marseille season so far
Angers record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marseille record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Angers vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Angers | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2-5 |
| 2025-10-29 | Marseille | Angers | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-09 | Angers | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-04 | Marseille | Angers | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-14 | Marseille | Angers | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2022-09-30 | Angers | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 0-3 |
| 2022-02-04 | Marseille | Angers | Ligue 1 | 5-2 |
| 2021-09-22 | Angers | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 0-0 |
| 2021-05-16 | Marseille | Angers | Ligue 1 | 3-2 |
| 2020-12-23 | Angers | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Angers vs Marseille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.7%, draw 25.2%, away 46.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.56 | 3.82 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.25 | 3.90 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.46 | 3.72 | 2.06 |
| Pinnacle | 3.53 | 3.82 | 2.05 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 3.26 | 2.09 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .