Estac Troyes
vs
Lens
1 – 3 Full time
Estac Troyes vs Lens overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estac Troyes vs Lens
| Probability | Estac Troyes | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.1% | 23.2% | 47.7% |
| Market | 24.4% | 25.0% | 50.6% |
| Final | 25.6% | 24.6% | 49.9% |
| Edge | +4.7% | -1.8% | -2.9% |
Why Lens
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.46.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estac Troyes and Lens expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Estac Troyes and Lens attack and defence ratings
Estac Troyes
Lens
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estac Troyes vs Lens: result vs prediction
Estac Troyes 1 – 3 Lens
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estac Troyes vs Lens markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 49.9% | 2.01 | -2.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 25.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Lens | 49.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win | 26.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.1% |
Estac Troyes vs Lens stats
Estac Troyes and Lens recent form
| Estac Troyes |
LLLLWD |
| Lens |
LWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Estac Troyes and Lens going into this match
Estac Troyes record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
Lens record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Estac Troyes vs Lens head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Estac Troyes | Lens | Coupe de France | 2-4 |
| 2023-01-28 | Estac Troyes | Lens | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2022-09-09 | Lens | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2022-05-14 | Estac Troyes | Lens | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2021-11-05 | Lens | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 | 4-0 |
| 2020-02-04 | Lens | Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 | 1-0 |
| 2019-08-24 | Estac Troyes | Lens | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
| 2019-08-13 | Estac Troyes | Lens | Coupe de la Ligue | 1-2 |
| 2019-01-28 | Estac Troyes | Lens | Ligue 2 | 1-0 |
| 2018-08-18 | Lens | Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estac Troyes vs Lens odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.1%, draw 24.7%, away 51.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.96 |
| Bet365 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.90 | 1.83 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.95 | 3.95 | 1.88 |
| Marathonbet | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 4.01 | 3.88 | 1.92 |
| SBO | 3.44 | 3.43 | 1.84 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .