Le Havre
vs
Auxerre
Garuda Lions Prediction: Le Havre
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Le Havre vs Auxerre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Le Havre vs Auxerre
| Probability | Le Havre | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.1% | 24.1% | 30.7% |
| Market | 41.3% | 27.9% | 30.7% |
| Final | 42.3% | 27.0% | 30.7% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -3.8% | +0.0% |
Why Le Havre
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.37.
- The market prices Le Havre below the model: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Le Havre vs Auxerre match preview
Le Havre hosts Auxerre in an intriguing Ligue 1 matchup. According to our model, Le Havre has a 40% chance of winning, while Auxerre holds a 33% probability. The expected goals for Le Havre stand at 1.81, compared to Auxerre's 1.37, suggesting a competitive encounter. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Le Havre, which has a 9% probability.
Both teams have struggled recently, with Le Havre recording five matches without a win (L-L-D-L-D-L) and Auxerre winning two of their last six (L-W-W-L-L-L). In their last four head-to-head matches, Le Havre has dominated with three wins and one draw against Auxerre, who has yet to secure a victory. Our model indicates a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood that both teams will score.
Le Havre and Auxerre team news
Le Havre news
- A. Seko — suspended
- A. Toure — knee injury
- E. Jelert — thigh injury
- F. Mambimbi — achilles tendon injury
- L. Mpasi-Nzau — achilles tendon injury
- R. Fofana — inactive
- S. Zagadou — knee injury
- T. Pembele — muscle injury
Auxerre news
- A. Diousse — knee injury
- B. Okoh — knee injury
- C. Akpa — injury
- M. Senaya — hamstring injury
- R. Labeau Lascary — injury
- R. Mandengue — muscle injury
- S. Fofana — groin injury
- T. Siwe — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Le Havre and Auxerre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Le Havre and Auxerre attack and defence ratings
Le Havre
Auxerre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Le Havre vs Auxerre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 42.3% | 2.37 | +3.8% | 2.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 42.3% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Auxerre | 30.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Le Havre win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 54.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 7.6% |
Le Havre vs Auxerre stats
Le Havre and Auxerre recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Le Havre and Auxerre season so far
Le Havre record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auxerre record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Le Havre vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Le Havre | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Auxerre | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | Auxerre | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-01 | Le Havre | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 3-1 |
| 2022-05-07 | Le Havre | Auxerre | Ligue 2 | 1-2 |
| 2021-12-21 | Auxerre | Le Havre | Ligue 2 | 2-3 |
| 2021-04-05 | Auxerre | Le Havre | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
| 2020-12-01 | Le Havre | Auxerre | Ligue 2 | 1-1 |
| 2020-03-06 | Le Havre | Auxerre | Ligue 2 | 1-0 |
| 2019-10-05 | Auxerre | Le Havre | Ligue 2 | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Le Havre vs Auxerre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 28.0%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.51 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.36 | 3.42 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.45 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.05 | 2.82 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
30 snapshots recorded, from .