Marseille
vs
Le Havre
Garuda Lions Prediction: Marseille
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Marseille is the favourite, not a value bet.
Marseille vs Le Havre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marseille vs Le Havre
| Probability | Marseille | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.5% | 22.6% | 32.9% |
| Market | 61.1% | 20.7% | 18.2% |
| Final | 57.0% | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| Edge | -4.1% | +0.5% | +3.7% |
Why Marseille
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (our 57.0% × 1.60 − 1).
Marseille vs Le Havre match preview
Marseille faces Le Havre in a Ligue 1 matchup, with Marseille holding a 58% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. Marseille has been inconsistent recently, with a record of W-L-W-L-L-L, while Le Havre has struggled, recording L-L-L-D-L-D in their last six matches.
The expected goals for this match suggest a strong offensive performance from Marseille at 2.25, compared to Le Havre's 1.66. Our model indicates a 73% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Marseille has dominated this fixture, winning all six of their last encounters against Le Havre.
Marseille and Le Havre team news
Marseille news
- A. Koum Mbondo — illness
- D. Cornelius — hip injury
Le Havre news
- A. Toure — knee injury
- E. Jelert — thigh injury
- F. Mambimbi — achilles tendon injury
- L. Mpasi-Nzau — achilles tendon injury
- S. Zagadou — knee injury
- T. Pembele — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marseille and Le Havre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Marseille and Le Havre attack and defence ratings
Marseille
Le Havre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marseille vs Le Havre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 57.0% | 1.76 | -4.1% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 57.0% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Le Havre | 21.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.0% |
| No | 32.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 55.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Marseille vs Le Havre stats
Marseille and Le Havre recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marseille and Le Havre season so far
Marseille record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Le Havre record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marseille vs Le Havre head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Le Havre | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Marseille | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 6-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Le Havre | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-3 |
| 2025-01-05 | Marseille | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 5-1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Le Havre | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2023-10-08 | Marseille | Le Havre | Ligue 1 | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marseille vs Le Havre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 20.9%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.82 | 5.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.70 | 5.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.83 | 5.23 |
| SBO | 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.81 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .